JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 2/14/22

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Ben Clemens

3:00

The owners' proposals thus far have been far more unrealistic

They're proposing meaningfully worse economics than the existing system and they also proactively locked out the players

3:01

If you're looking for someone to just automatically say that both sides are equally to blame, go elsewhere

Michael

3:01

Who do you like better and why, Kaprielian or Singer?

Ben Clemens

3:01

Singer for me by a good bit

3:02

I'm worried about Kaprelian's durability, and I trust our scouting grades (and most outlets' grades) on Singer's command upside

3:03

I love good-command pitchers with a plus secondary, and I think he fits that mold better than Kaprelian

Ryan

3:03

If Meg Rowley started playing MLB baseball this season and put up 50 WAR in a pretty conventional way, would the combination of her playing career and work at Fangraphs get her into the Hall of Fame?

Ben Clemens

3:03

50 WAR in one season? They'd have to!

50 WAR overall? Probably also yes, because she'd be the first woman in MLB history and also have a borderline hall of fame career

3:04

Editing FanGraphs? I think that would not even help as a tiebreaker

Sorry Meg!

My Vday Crush is...

3:04

Interesting to hear you're high on Houser. What upside are we missing?

Ben Clemens

3:04

I don't actually know if we are

If you are, rather

3:05

What I like is that I know he can miss bats -- he did in 2018 and again in 2020

And I know he can get grounders

And for a time it looked like he was trending in a good way command-wise

3:06

I'm not sure he's goin to be able to put it all together but I just like betting on someone with a standout pitch like his sinker, and Milwaukee has done a great job helping their pitchers figure out a pitch mix that works

Jfast

3:06

Whose the best “good command pitcher with one plus secondary”guy? Jose Urquidy?

Ben Clemens

3:07

Maybe, or maybe Kyle Hendricks, or late-career Adam Wainwright

Ken

3:07

Would MLB consider a "Larry Bird Rights" arrangement where homegrown players can sign contracts that don't count (to some degree) against the luxury tax? If so, would this be a good idea?

Ben Clemens

3:08

I don't think it would really work in baseball, because of the way the CBT works

So few teams even approach it

That it would really just be a way for rich teams to pay less tax, which the owners are obviously against

The owners would prefer every team had to pay tax for every dollar they spend

3:09

And the players probably aren't that interested, because giving a player on a bad team Bird Rights just doesn't matter that much

3:10

Give Wander Franco a special exemption.... so what?

The Rays won't have a payroll within 125 million dollars of the tax anyway

It works way better in a league like the NBA with a fairly narrow band of salaries across teams

But I like the idea of creative solutions like this

Just, I think this particular one doesn't quite work with the way baseball salaries are structured

confused

3:11

can you quickly explain why the owners want every dollar taxed? kind of get it but note really.

Ben Clemens

3:11

Well, then there's an incentive for every team to spend less

Let's say that if you sign someone for 10 million dollars, you have to pay 10 million dollars into a pot split by every other team

an additional 10

well, that player is now less interesting to you

3:12

If that happens to everyone, then everyone is incentivized to be the smallest spender of all teams because every dollar you spend is negative marginal return due to that tax going to all other teams

Now there's less competition for free agents because EVERY team has the same bind

so now every salary is less

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