JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 2/14/22

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 2/14/22

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Dodgers

2:49

Does Mitch White have a good shot at making the rotation for the Dodgers?

Ben Clemens

2:49

It depends what you mean by rotation, I think

If you mean getting 30 starts, nah

But I think the Dodgers are going to have 8-10 starters who get some run, and I think White will be a part of that

Ryan

2:50

Which is your least favorite out of DRS, UZR, and OAA? How much should I care about them compared to reputation or some other set of metrics?

Ben Clemens

2:50

Well, my favorite is OAA

DRS and UZR have weaknesses that don't overlap too much, so a blend of those two is okay as well in a pinch

2:51

How much should you care about them compared to reputation? I think they're more valuable than reputation at telling you who saved runs that year. I think reputation is about as good as they are at predicting who will be good next year (if you're using one year of defensive stats, reputation might be better)

But I think the way OAA approaches it is fundamentally sound, which goes a long way

Ryan

2:52

Could you elaborate on what their weaknesses are?

Ben Clemens

2:52

UZR doesn't use shifts

DRS has a weird BABIP adjustment that I don't quite understand that makes every Rockies infielder a god and every outfielder a chump

Alex

2:52

Is a high sinker a groundball pitch or a flyball pitch? I was wondering based off your article a few weeks ago on pitchers who throw sinkers and 4 seam fastballs.

Ben Clemens

2:53

I'm looking into this, I meant to write a followup but I keep diving deeper into data and getting lost in my thoughts

2:54

but sinkers that are 2.75 feet or higher when they cross the plate have a 45% GB rate. Sinkers under 2.75 feet have a 58.9% GB rate. 4-seamers overall have a 34% GB rate

So sinkers definitely increase grounders.... but higher ones do so less

Jeff

2:54

Is a starter with 4 45-55 pitch types and good command more valuable to you than a starter with 2 65-70 pitch types and good command? All else equal, obv

Ben Clemens

2:55

Pretty contextual, because I'd want to know if I could teach them new pitches or if we could tinker with one of those 45-55 pitches to make it a 65 or so on

2:56

I'd err towards the two-pitch pitcher though, just because neither is going to be an ace, so I'm more comfortable making them a 5-and-dive type

at which point I think the varied arsenal matters less

My Vday Crush is...

2:56

Who you got between Altuve or Chisholm in a keeper league?

Ben Clemens

2:56

Jazz, please

Clubby Stapp

2:56

Does Gurriel, Kirk, and Pearson get the Guardians attention for a J Ram trade?

Ben Clemens

2:56

I think it does, though I doubt the Guardians want Gurriel

He earns money, they're not really into that

2:57

Maybe the offset of J Ram's salary would help, but it's just really not their style

Zachary

2:57

Let's say a deal gets signed on March 1st. How quickly do you expect most or all of Correa, Freeman, Story, Bryant, Rodon to sign with teams?

Ben Clemens

2:57

I thikn it'll be fast, like 2 weeks or less

Both players and teams will be heavily incentivized to figure this out quickly

Guest

2:58

Where do you see Akil Baddoo's career trajectory going this year and beyond? Does he ever develop into a top 25 outfielder?

Ben Clemens

2:58

Top 25, nah

That's a high bar to clear

I think he's going to be a solid regular whose strikeouts keep him from breaking out

bill

2:58

is there any goofy discourse between FG staff regarding the comments sections

Ben Clemens

2:59

Generically yes, but only for really weird/goofy comments

There's kind of a shared commiseration about trolls, but we have shockingly few trolls

You readers really are great

Nick

2:59

Will Fangraphs be bringing us an article titled “The Players’ Latest Offer Gets U.S. No Closer to Baseball Season”? I’d appreciate coverage of both sides of the issue.

Ben Clemens

2:59

I find our coverage fair and objective

3:00

When both sides proposed changes to pre-arb compensation, I wrote it up and didn't hesitate to mention the parts of the players' proposal that I thought were unrealistic

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