JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 2/17/2020

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 2/17/2020

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Ben Clemens

2:40

These Dodgers are ridiculous. I tihnk the NL West is probably too good for them to win somehting stupid like 120 games.

But their taxi squad would probably win the NL West.

Kraken

2:40

For speculative saves, rank Karinchak, Clase, Nick Anderson.....Thanks!

Ben Clemens

2:40

I haven't read enough about the Karinchak/Clase situation to know what's going on there.

2:41

Which means I mainly default to Jason and Roster Resource.

And he has Clase ahead of Karinchak, but close

That makes sense to me

Karinchak's command is always a question mark, enough so that I don't mind having him behind Clase even though Clase is a wild card still.

2:42

I guess my point is: Nick Anderson please.

He might actually just be the closer now?

Tampa spreads it out, of course

But he's probably the best reliever in a loaded pen for a team that will get a lot of saves.

Bay Area Resident

2:43

What are the chances that the A's win the AL West?

Ben Clemens

2:43

Missed this one earlier, but I do like A's questions. I tihnk they're less than 10% to win the West, because the Angels are nipping at their heels (or maybe they're nipping at the Angels' heels? it's close)

2:44

And the Astros should still be big favorites

They cheated, that's for sure,b ut that doesn't mean they're not full of great players.

NotGraphs Revivalist

2:44

Hey Ben, what's your outlook on Max Fried in 2020? Noticed Steamer's FIP projection on him is very similar to Flaherty, Syndergaard, Kershaw, and Clevinger, and he had a really nice second half

Ben Clemens

2:45

Love Fried. Probably not quite to the level of Flaherty, who I'm most bullish on of the pitchers you listed, but solidly in the next tier.

2:46

And I definitely like him more than Soroka, though I'm not sure thats a popular opinion.

I am the Walrus

2:46

Did the inclusion of Price and $15M get the Bosox more, less or the same return than if they didn't include him at all?

Ben Clemens

2:46

I don't know! I think I'd pay more?

2:47

Like if my team signed Price to a 3/48 deal right now I'd be sooooo in

But then it kind of feels like they got zero or negative for him?

It's truly baffling

And an underratedly weird part of the trade.

Guest

2:47

Your take on information asymetry during spring training vs. the regular season. That is, teams know their own players more than their competitors during spring training. What are the impacts on dealing the player?

Ben Clemens

2:48

I think in the days before pervasive data scouting and cameras and stuff, this might have been moe of a big deal?

Might be more of a question for Eric to be honest.

PartyGuy69

2:48

Am I the only one who finds it strange that Vlad Jr now seems to be a secondary thought for many? He was a mega world class prospect this time last year, was merely decent as a young rookie, and now it's borderline crickets on the kid. Have we just been spoiled by the absurd rookie seasons we've recently experienced to a point that we've become dismissive of those who don't immediately explode? Seems harsh.

Ben Clemens

2:48

That is 100% what happened, and it's crazy.

2:49

Not everyone is Soto and Acuna.

His 'bad season' wasn't even that bad (offensively)

2:50

like, Steamer projects him for a 127 wRC+, ZiPS for a 125 OPS+

That's an elite hitting third baseman. Now the defense?

A yikes a

Everyone

2:50

I am Soto and Acuna

Dave

2:50

What are the chances Darvish is lost again this season?

Ben Clemens

2:52

I don't find it all that likely. I thought that his struggles last year were overblown; he had this weird combination of walk rates that weren't really supported by peripherals (combination of getting squeezed on calls and batters happening to foul off a lot of balls late in counts rather than early)

And then also just tremendously bad luck on contact.

So I was a believer even when he was bad, and then he got a LOT better

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