JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 2/17/2020

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 2/17/2020

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Derek

2:52

Do you play fantasy baseball, Ben? Seems like kind of a mixed bag among FanGraphs writers whether they do or not.

Ben Clemens

2:52

I didn't last year but I'm going to this year.

2:53

I've been an on and off player throughout my life, and trending towards playing more.

I kind of think that given how much I'm reading and looking at it, and how much I like building projection systems and su ch

I might as well

Derek

2:53

Yu Darvish was like other-worldly good down the stretch last season! Seems like he "figured things out" around the all-star break.

Ben Clemens

2:54

Yeah, I pretty much agree with that, though I'd differ by saying that he figured it out even earlier than the All Star break

John

2:54

Somone earlier in the hour brought up the Yankees as a team that maybe was being looked into (in addition to the Astros and Red Sox who we know already were). Are there actually any whispers that they (or the Brewers, Dodgers) had been looked into or just people throwing stuff out there?

Ben Clemens

2:55

I haven't seen any confirmation of the Yankees being investigated, but it comes down to the fact that they've already been disciplined for it and that Beltran played there for a while

The Ghost of Wade Boggs

2:55

I'd say Grover Cleveland should merit some consideration for the president team, assuming he can pitch like Grover Cleveland Alexander

Ben Clemens

2:55

I'm having a side conversation with my wife and dad right now about presidents

And I inadvertently called the President Grover Cleveland Alexander

Dan

2:56

Is there a way to see how someone is predicted to play assuming they trough trades or injuries to the presumptive starter become their teams starter? Multiplying predictions by 2 or 3 or whatever seems a poor workaround.

Ben Clemens

2:56

You might have to ask Dan about this one. The projection systems should have the correct platoon splits and pinch hit penalties and stuff

2:57

but they aren't exposed

One thing you can do is manually do your own de-platooning

Like, estimate the % of time the player you're looking at would have the platoon edge in his current situation

Compare to what they'd have if they were an every day starter

2:58

And then water down their stats based on that.

A good rule of thumb is that a lefty will have about a 1.08x advantage againstn a right-handed pitcher

And a righty will have a 1.05x advantage against a left-handed pitcher

Luckily, you can probably just ignore people's actual numbers and use those estimates, because it takes forever for platoon data to be meaningful (for batters)

Derek

2:59

Wait so we talked about which presidents would be good baseball players, but... Which baseball players would be good presidents? (I submit Mike Trout, because obviously.)

Ben Clemens

2:59

Sean Casey was nicknamed the Mayor, so I'd throw him on the list.

(I think it was him? Been a while since I've thought about him)

3:00

I'm not sold on Trout. He's too into the weather.

What about Fernando Perez? I've loved hearing him talk when he's on podcasts, he's a great writer, generally seems very likeable.

The Ghost of Wade Boggs

3:00

Jim Bunning was a senator, so possibly him

Dave

3:00

If Trout is president and he uses a sharpie on a map, atleast it'll be accurate?

Ben Clemens

3:01

Trout should just run NOAA

Also Ben

3:01

Any idea why righty hitters have a slightly smaller average platoon advantage than lefty hitters? Is it just...physics?

Ben Clemens

3:01

Don't think it's physics, though I can't be sure. The Book speculated about this, and one of their reasons was that the population of right-handed pitchers was too large

Artificially, because they get the platoon advantage more often

3:02

So the average talent level of righty pitchers is lwoer than that of lefties.

True talent, ex-platoon

But I havent really seen a study that could confirm that.

Johnny5Alive

3:02

I know just last season the mets felt like the dodgers "knew what they were going to throw"

Ben Clemens

3:03

Yeah look you can't take baseball players at their word on this stuff all the time, they are very defensive and assume people are trying to steal from them

Because that's the best way to keep people from doing it

3:04

But I haven't investigated that specific allegation enough to know.

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