JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 2/2/2026

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 2/2/2026

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Ben Clemens

2:13

I think the Sox would

like, they like thoes guys! and they love to hoard pitching

also they obviously dislike paying up to trade for infielders, or trading their guys below their perceived internal value

bringbackpologrounds

2:13

Rafael Devers is projected for a .250-.255 batting average despite consistently hitting .275-.280 for his career. Can this be attributed strictly to the ballpark change, or are there other concerns relating to his contact ability?

Ben Clemens

2:14

well I think the fact that he hit .252 with a .307 BABIP in 2025 surely plays SOME role in this

'consistently hitting .275-.280' he hasn't hit .275 since 2022

2:15

He has a .265 average over the last three years, and he's plyaing in a park that decreases lefty results. doesnt' feel wild to me, particularly when you consider that his contact rates have been on a steady decline

The counterpoint is that maybe he can adjust his swing with a full year of knowing the kind of stadium he plays in, and start ripping more liners or something. But this doesn't look at all like a weird projection to me

Petey Bienel

2:15

After looking at the Jordan Hicks deal, should Paul Toboni call up Craig Breslow and offer Keibert Ruiz for Yoshida plus, either alone or as part of a CJ Abrams deal? Ruiz and Yoshida are due just about the same money, but Ruiz has it spread over 5 years (vs Yoshida 2) lowering the CBT hit.

Ben Clemens

2:15

I mean, definitely

2:17

i have no clue if the Sox would be interested in doing that deal, but they're working hard to reduce payroll. They're going to be around the CBT line and could use some short-term relief.

Guest

2:17

I looked up Hank Aaron's stats again after reading the most recent FG Weekly Mailbag. He put up at least 5 WAR every year from his age 21 season through his age 37 season. I don't have a question, I'm just amazed.

Ben Clemens

2:17

Absolutely amazing

TameImp

2:18

How does the money exchanged work in a deal like the Hicks one. Is it paid out at the time of the deal? So if Hicks shoves and the White Sox can deal him, they pocket the money?

Ben Clemens

2:19

Nah, I haven't read the specific terms of the deal but the way these work is that the trading team is responsible for paying a portion of the salary

so that moves around with the player

you can be getting paid by three plus teams, theoretically

I think Arenado might be in that camp this year

Guest

2:20

Pete Alonso had a 157 wRC+ against RHP last year and a 102 against LHP. His career splits are more neutral but still a little better against RHP than LHP (135 vs. 125). How real do you think his reverse platoon splits are going forward? Should we expect him to be better against RHP, LHP, or the same against both?

Ben Clemens

2:21

I have him as basically without splits. There's a good rule in The Book, which remains one of the best references for baseball analysis that I own, that we can use here. If you want to measure a righty's split, take 2000* a league average split, take their vL PA's * their measured platoon split, and do a weighted average

2:22

The average righty is 5% better against lefties than against righties. In 1196 career PA against lefties, Alonso has a -4% average platoon split

blend it all up, an dyou get that he projects at 1.6% better against lefties than righties, way less than the average split

TameImp

2:23

Do we know for sure Verlander is playing next year?

Ben Clemens

2:23

We don't

I think he will, but I am a lot less sure now than in November

TameImp

2:24

Does the Geno deal make the Polanco deal kind of eh given a similar ish role they fill?

Ben Clemens

2:24

Well, let's wait and see how they perform, but generally speaking I don't think it's a huge deal

like, someone was gonna be the last of the second-tier hitters to sign

and that guy was going to go for a bargain

now, maybe the Mets actually were willing to give Geno 2/35 and taking Polanco at 2/40 is worse now

2:25

but it's just a fact that SOMEONE will sign late for cheap

that was known when they made the deal. we just didn't know the exact identity, or how cheap

but for me, not a huge chagne in my evaluation

joe

2:25

can i get your complete shot in the dark guess on roman's HR count for 2026

Ben Clemens

2:25

put me down for 16 but like 35 doubles

2:26

I can't get the picture of him just flicking doubles off the monster out of my head. Feels easier to me to do that than to turn up the homer dial by a ton

PinstripedPride

2:26

Nice writeup of the playoff odds. You mention won projections a bunch but I don't see them on the site yet, the projected standings still are on 2025

Ben Clemens

2:28

If you're looking on desktop, 'proj w' is on our playoff odds table. If you're looking on mobile, uh, huh

I dunno

they're there, though!

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