JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 2/2/2026

Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page

joe

2:28

oof, low!

Ben Clemens

2:28

low but it's actually a higher total power output than our projections

2:29

extra doubles are really valuable

Dodgers Blue

2:29

What's keeping Hayden Birdsong from finding a permanent foothold in the majors? Is a change of scenery needed at this point?

Ben Clemens

2:29

command

I've been to a shocking number of Birdsong starts, by pure happenstance

it feels like he has no idea where teh ball is going, and that is clearly a big drag on his results

2:30

that kick change is nasty and he just throws his fastball by people. but he cannot hit the zone enough

bosoxforlife

2:31

In a game in which the home run has become the dominate way to score I see Suarez as far more valuable than what he was forced to accept. I see it as a terrific move by the Reds. I wish the Red Sox had used the $17 they saved by jettisoning Hicks to pick up 30+ home runs.

Ben Clemens

2:31

I tend to agree with you. I think one thing that is really tough to figure out with these things is that Suarez has plenty of red flags

but he's also had a lot of those flags for yeras

2:32

I put this in my article, but did you kno he's super slow? totally true, he's been super slow for 10 years and is top 10 in homers in that time. did you know he doesn't swing hard? true, and yet it's not declining, he just isn't a bat speed dude

TameImp

2:32

Any idea why the projections hate Geno so much other than old?

Ben Clemens

2:32

hate? I very much think they do not hate him

ZiPS thinks he'd be a nearly 3-WAR player if he played third

we're docking him meaningfully for playing DH, which makes sense: models say he's a scratch defender at a tough position, DH is much less valuable than that

TameImp

2:33

If no one is willing to eat a pick to sign Gallen how long does he have to wait before he's unencumbered? It's June right?

Ben Clemens

2:33

if I remember right, it's when the draft happens

it was June the last time it mattered, but that's July now

that's just off the top of my head, to be clear

Sog

2:33

What would Suarez have made if he wasn’t so terrible with the Mariners? 53 games isn’t a huge sample size but it’s not nothing either

Ben Clemens

2:33

I mean, hard to know a counterfactual, but I was not compelled by the 'he's bad in Seattle' stuff

2:34

like he had a 91 wRC+ despite a 36% strikeout rate

he hit 13 homers. he was worth 0.7 WAR. He was Seattle's sixth-most-valuable hitter in that stretch

SoundWavesHello

2:35

What are your thoughts on some of the more recent BaseballSavant stats that have come out in the last ~3 years?

I ask because I'm excited about some of the things they're trying to measure, but increasingly bummed out about how much 'secret sauce' ends up in their stats. For example: I love that they've got a double play factor for infielders these days. But when I take a look over at the methodology for how such a thing is calculated, it's a far cry from how transparent public-facing stats (like wOBA, wRC+, etc.) have been in the past. We're talking Intercept Point, Action Point, and all sorts of other things that just aren't publicly available in the Statcast dataset (heck, from what I can see in the available attributes, I don't even think I could impute that info with any confidence).

I'd be curious to hear how this sort of thing is viewed at Fangraphs, particularly given its standing as one of the best resources out there for public baseball stats.

Ben Clemens

2:36

yeah - I guess I'd say that I like their statistics a lot for their novelty and the fact that they are generally presented and normalized very well

2:37

also they do have intercept point now in the spreadsheets, for the record; 'intercept_ball_minus_batter_pos_y_inches, it just rolls off the tongue

PinstripedPride

2:37

True or false: the DH penalty in WAR disguises the fact that for some teams, they have defense covered with decent hitters anyway, so even if the DH could play a little defense he wasn't going to get a chance to do so, and it's good to have nice hitter

Ben Clemens

2:37

oh, true for sure

2:38

a)we have a 'WAR working group' that we hope will make changes on this front, though honestly i doubt that's happening imminently

b)it's very clear that teams value offensive WAR more than defensive WAR, I think largely because it's a little bit more stable. so teams definitely behave the way you're tlaking about

I expect us to change our positional adjustments to penalize DH less in the future

War2D2

2:38

Piggybacking on the Gallen question, what happens if he signs a 3-month deal with some indy ball team while he waits for the “unencumberance” deadline? Are there rules surrounding that? What if he wants to play for the Chicago Dogs for a few months in beautiful Rosemont, IL, do the Dogs then owe the DBacks a pick from a local D3 school?!

Ben Clemens

2:39

haha no, that team would not be bound by collectively bargained terms between MLB teams and MLB players

so he could do what he wants

he's not under contract to anyone. He could come write for FanGraphs

the QO specifically determines compensation should another major league franchise sign the guy, and assigns penalties to that prospective signing team

Gabe

2:39

Any hope for Jordan Walker or Norman Gorman?

Ben Clemens

2:40

absolutely

i mean the easiest pitch is that they'll never feel more secure in their jobs than they do right now

Connecting…