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Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 2/21/23

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Henry

1:03

George Kirby AL Cy Young dark horse candidate?

Ben Clemens

1:03

Totally

But like.... dark horse

1:05

I'd want to see him either retool the breaking pitches or emphasize his changeup more

1:06

I'm not sure what to make of his slider; it looks pretty ordinary to me, and got hit hard last year (a 7.7% swinging strike rate is shockingly low for a breaking pitch) but pithcing models seem to like it

RAH

1:07

MLB headline: Heyward's new swing the early talk of camp

Ben Clemens

1:07

I mean, what else is there to talk about?

So Sue Vide Me

1:07

A sous vide's greatest advantage is not fancy projects but rapid, delicious, perfectly cooked proteins. Freeze up a bunch of steaks or salmon filets or chicken, toss em in the sous vide a couple hours before dinner, quick sear and prep a side and you've got dinner with less than 10 minutes of active work (depending on the side).

Ben Clemens

1:07

Again, couple hours before dinner? That counts as a project to me

But I do appreciate the lack of active cooking time

Luke

1:08

Endy Rodriguez’ projections are highly encouraging. ZIPs 1.4 WAR over 57 games and Steamer 3.3 WAR over 124 games. The latter would get ROY votes. Do you believe in this $10,000 international signee?

Ben Clemens

1:09

I have to say, I'm very confused about him. He's gonna be a top 100 prospect I'm sure, he's a 55 overall, and the numbers and scouts seem to agree

But my ML likelihood model (which is like a cut-rate KATOH or ZiPS prospects, I'm gonna write up the hitters it likes most for Friday) is really not bought in

1:10

I am looking at his statistics and don't exactly understand why, to be honest

He seems like the kind of hitter that model should like

I'll just say.... who cares if I believe, but I don't

Crone Zone

1:10

Did people give up on Ian Anderson too quickly? Added a slider (I’ll believe it when I see it, but in theory a valuable add to his arsenal if he can make it average). At his worst last year with little to no command, his ERA estimators were all in the low 4’s. Or am I being too optimistic and the change up has been figured out?

Ben Clemens

1:11

I'm totally with you on 'believe it when I see it' on a slider for him

It's kinda a weird pairing given how vertical his fastball is, and how the changeup plays really well off of that fastball

1:12

I think he's a fringe-average starter, but I am not optimistic about anything more than that

Justin

1:12

David Wright, hall of fame?

Ben Clemens

1:12

For me, yes

I'm a big hall guy, though, and I don't have a vote

Air Yordan

1:13

Not to get too into the odds, but do you see Gunnar Henderson as 3x as likely to win AL ROY as Hunter Brown? I know Henderson has the opening day job but Brown seems guaranteed to reach 120 innings and after last year I’m buying that they’ll be high quality innings

Ben Clemens

1:14

Yeah, I think it's reasonable to have Brown as fairly unlikely just b/c I expect the Astros to put him in bubble wrap

It's just hard for pitchers to win rookie of the year given the way teams treat them now

Not that it can't happen, and I think Henderson's odds are too narrow anyway, so maybe on that front I agree with you, but I want hitters, not pitchers

I'd be more interested in Yoshida probably, tbh

1:15

or heck, go off the board completely for Fujinami if he's offered somewhere

Guest

1:15

What do you expect in 2023 from a 40 year old Verlander?

Ben Clemens

1:15

I dunno, 4 WAR and a bunch of glowers

Buxton Breakthrough

1:15

Every year we ask the same question, is this the year Buxton stays healthy and puts up MVP level stats? I just want to see a season of him and Correa together for 120+ games

Ben Clemens

1:15

Sure, I'll say yes for fun

I am with you, I want to see it as well, not as a Twins fan but as a baseball fan

Rizzo

1:16

What do you think of James Wood's performance on WSN? He also showed good offense on the WSN, but his K% increased significantly.

Ben Clemens

1:16

I'll defer to Eric on this one, so you'll just have to wait for the top 100 list tomorrow

1:17

Alright everyone, thanks for chatting today but I have to go walk my dog. Jay Jaffe will be chatting at 2 ET, so if I cruelly neglected to answer your question, I'm sure Jay will be around to also cruelly neglect to answer your question :).

Have a great week, everyone, and I'll chat with you again in a few weeks (I'm on vacation for a bit starting Friday)

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