JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 2/28/22

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 2/28/22

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Ben Clemens

2:34

I do think that their below average power projections seem reasonable, he's never hit for much pop and the frame doesn't scream Correa 2.0 to me

2:36

But I'm a sucker for a good defensive shortstop with a 50 hit tool, and I've been very impressed by his statistical record as well. Handling the jump from Hi-A in 2019 (and internal competition in 2020) to Triple-A in 2021 is a huge mark in his favor

And I just like betting on hit/field shortstops

namiki

2:36

Do you think the low spin sinker will be reinstated in place of the high spin four seam due to sticky substance regulations?

Ben Clemens

2:36

I kind of think pitchers will just find a new way to increase spin

2:37

That said, I think sinkers are on the rise because there's better understanding of how to use them and which pitchers should throw them. The 2014-era 'everyone throws a sinker' plan was not great, but some pitchers are well-suited to the pitch shape, either due to their delivery or due to how it works with the rest of their pitches

DJ

2:37

Are there any current players you don't think get credit for being as good as the numbers they've put up recently? Mine is Jeimer Candelario who tied for the MLB lead in doubles last year and has had a pretty solid last 800 plate appearances.

Ben Clemens

2:37

This is gonna sound silly but Brandon Lowe

People know he's good but uh, he's great

Jack

2:37

Soto for a top 15 prospect and a "productive" player. WHAT???????????????!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Ben Clemens

2:38

To be clear this is Soto before he'd played a game in the majors, in 2016

and you just happen to know the future

2:39

Brandon Lowe in his career: .255/.341/.518. That's a 134 wRC+

JT

2:40

I never went back to hockey after its lockout cost the entire 2004/05 season. I had had other issues with the league before that, but I really just got even more caught up in the NBA and never looked back.

How much should we worry as MLB fans that the owners are risking the security of the league by costing itself casual fans like I had once been for hockey?

Ben Clemens

2:40

I don't really know how to handicap this

It didn't happen in 1994, and hockey has a different fanbase in the US than baseball

But it should absolutely be a worry

2:41

I think it helps that a lot of TV deals are locked in for reasonably long spans at the moment, and the national deals have just been re-upped

cool

1

2022

2:42

MLB lost 6000 fans a game in 94 to 95, 20%

Ben Clemens

2:42

Yeah, and by '97 they were better than ever

I'm not claiming things won't be bad right after the lockout ends but it's not a given the league would end

Appa Yip Yip

2:42

The hockey season also runs concurrently with football and basketball so casuals can just hop sports if they're so inclined. Baseball is on its own in the summer.

Ben Clemens

2:42

Very good point too

Brian

2:42

I never thought I would be a "BUT THINK ABOUT THE CHILDREN" person but I have a 7 year old that asks everyday when baseball will start and I cant keep saying "in 2 weeks".

Ben Clemens

2:43

I'm going to Savannah to see a Bananas game (my dad lives nearby)

College baseball exists

But yeah it sucks

JT

2:43

Keep in mind, I am a Canadian surrounded by hockey, getting Leafs and Canadiens updates on Sportscentre before I get the MLB All Star Game in July.

And I still left the sport.

Ben Clemens

2:43

A hockey leaver in Canada, now that takes some doing

hombre

2:44

Hey Ben, how are you doing? Tough question, but what do you think is the probability that Wander is better than Tatis in, say, 3/4 seasons?

Ben Clemens

2:44

I am doing alright

My dog has an upset stomach which is no fun for anyone, and I stubbed my toe really badly yesterday, so you know, there are some minuses

Plus, well, everything

But there are some pluses too!

2:45

I wrote a reported piece about a really wild online sim baseball league that I'm gonna publish either tomorrow or Wednesday that I think people will really like

2:46

As to your question: in that league Wander is better than Tatis. But in real life, I'm gonna say like 30% chance? I know I said I'm a sucker for hit/field shortstops but I'm also a sucker for 70 raw power shortstops with Tatis-level athleticism

Dan

2:46

Can Brian watch classic games with his 7 year old? Would that get you the same bonding time and guaranteed it's a good game? Or is seven old enough to demand the unique entertainment value of live sports

Ben Clemens

2:46

I watched a lot of old sports as a kid but my dad just never told me they were old

or maybe he did and I was a kid so I don't remember

Sirras

2:47

Did you ever read the sim leagues of one player as the entire team? Think there was a Bartolo team, an Ichiro team, an Adam Dunn team, and a Koji Uehara team if I remember correctly. Those were fun pieces...

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