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Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 2/28/22

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Ben Clemens

2:47

Yeah, the Adam Dunn one is an all-timer

the peak of NotGraphs

Bryan

2:48

If the players offer is fair. And every report seems to verify that. Why are they so against outside mediation? Seems like a neutral side would only benefit them?

Ben Clemens

2:48

I'm not an expert in mediation but I'm quite certain that it's not based on some high-minded concept of 'fairness'. Look at arbitration that goes in front of mediators

2:49

I don't know the MLBPA's reasons for declining mediation but I think it's fair to say that I'm not an expert in bargaining tactics as a whole

Pirates Hurdles

2:50

It took until 2006 for average attendance/game to match 1994. They had only recovered a bit less than half of the losses by 1997

Ben Clemens

2:50

I found this discussion of the effect of lockouts very helpful

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/effectively-wild-episode-1809-how-harmful-...

2:51

Also this by Ben Lindbergh about the steroids era

https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2018/9/28/17913536/mark-mcgwire-sammy-so...

had a nice tidbit, that shows how little owners actually care about attendance:

League revenue surpassed 1993 levels by 1997

Owners don't actually care about per-game attendance nubmers above all else, and i know that because I've seen what they charge for tickets

Dan

2:52

can someone link to that Adam Dunn notgraphs piece?

Ben Clemens

2:52

https://not.fangraphs.com/dangerous-experiment-a-roster-of-25-adam-dun...

Pirates Hurdles

2:52

yeah no doubt agree, the owners dont care yet, but eventual decline in fanbase will erode cash streams

Ben Clemens

2:53

Sure, but no one seems to be a lot of long-term 'best interests of baseball' thinking in this debate

I agree with you but I just don't think that anyone is looking that far ahead

Rival Baseball League

2:53

Since the Saudis have a few hundred billion that they want to use to sports wash, you think they could buy enough MLBers to set up their own baseball league?

Ben Clemens

2:53

Yeesh

If they really wanted to, probably?

They could just buy MLB!

Appa Yip Yip

2:54

Why would the Saudis buy baseball when cricket is way more popular around those parts?

Ben Clemens

2:54

Haha they probably wouldn't

2:55

Plus soccer seems to have the ideal structure for someone who can make up sponsorship deals and so on

Teddy

2:55

Who are some players you personally admire most, and why?

Ben Clemens

2:55

I'm just going to say one person: Curtis Granderson

There's no player since I've followed baseball who made me think "that guy seems like a great guy" more than Granderson

2:56

Teammates all loved him, he was really personable and did a ton of charity work in New York, and was just an absolute delight at the ballpark

Ask players what they think of him, and I'm not sure you'd get a single negative reply

jfast

2:57

ZiPS has Yordan projected to have the 9th most WAR in all of baseball (ahead of Mookie, Correa, Acuna, etc) in 2022. How is he not regarded as a top 3 hitter? Is he behind the scenes?

Ben Clemens

2:57

Oh sorry I missed your Yordan question up above

2:58

For me, Yordan is a top 5-10 hitter in the game

Top 3 vs top 5 vs top 10 is not an easy thing to parse

When we did our trade value series last year, I can't tell you how many people called me and Kevin absolute dummies for putting Alvarez just outside the top 10

2:59

'he's just a DH, there's no value, look at the projections you morons' was the basic argument

and yeah.... the projections (with a little bit of surplus value estimation) had him as the 8th most valuable player/contract combination in the game

Criminally underrated despite everyone realizing he's good

3:00

Several commenters have asked about this, so I'll just make a quick mention: if you don't want to pay a full-season rate for MLB.tv, today is the last day to cancel your auto-renewal

Given that there won't be a full season, you'll be able to get a bit of a rebate here if you cancel and then re-subscribe later

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