JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 2/6/2020

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 2/6/2020

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Ben Clemens

12:00

Hey everyone, welcome to the chat.

I imagine we'll have a lot of Betts content today, and probably we'll cover some Rockies (irrational) optimism and contending team problems as well, but I'll try to sneak in my promised sandwich takes and some board game talk as well.

Let's get started!

Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes

12:01

Why are so many takes on the Betts deal predicated on the idea that the Red Sox couldn't have competed this year? What, they saw the Rays' roster of Morton/Snell/Glasnow and 37 2-WAR players and decided they couldn't possibly hang with that?

Ben Clemens

12:01

I think it's because that's what the Red Sox have been telling people, but it's a ridiculous take. This team is pretty similar to the team that won the World Series in 2018!

12:02

What you have to do to make their argument work is pre-suppose that they *have* to cut salary

The Red Sox as they were constituted this past Sunday were probably the second-best team in the AL East, with a puncher's chance at first.

But the Red Sox but minus 40 million dollars cut somewhere on the roster weren't.

So if you're willing to say they have to cut payroll, then they have to cut payroll. It's a bit of a tautology.

Springer McSpaniel

12:03

Say the Betts trade does go through, who’s the better bet to play CF between Bellinger and Betts?

Ben Clemens

12:04

This is something I probably have no edge in predicting. I think Betts would be better out there; he's the kind of athlete that you don't see often, and there are credible arguments that Fenway's right field is basically a center field, and JBJ, and so on.

But honestly, it doesn't matter much, and so whatever the Dodgers think will make their guys overall happiest is what they should do.

Sirras

12:05

Am I crazy if I think the Mookie deal is a win-win-win assuming Boston did not intend to compete in 2020 or didn't think they could win their division?

Ben Clemens

12:05

I mean, I guess? If Boston didn't intend to compete in 2020, though, then what a bizarrely designed team! They have a lot of really good players and their farm system isn't great. 2020 seems like an awesome time to compete!

Springer McSpaniel

12:06

Ever had the pork belly sandwich at Num Pang In NY? If in NY, give it a try. Catfish is great too.

Ben Clemens

12:06

We'll sprinkle a quick sandwich question in to start. Pretty much everything at Num Pang is great! I used to work near the Hudson Yards location and got it for lunch way more than is healthy.

Springer McSpaniel

12:06

So, if Graterol’s not fit, does that just mean the Dodgers have to cough up more? Dodgers should nix the Angel trade and move Stripling to Boston. Thoughts?

Ben Clemens

12:07

Guess I'm hitting a lot of your questions early. I think the Twins are kind of on the hook here? Maybe they and the Dodgers will each eat a little bit, say the Price money goes down slightly and the Twins throw in a lottery ticket?

12:08

But I thought their side of the deal seemed startlingly good -- I like Maeda a lot and was skeptical about Graterol -- so I think they are probably willing to give a little more.

Guest

12:08

Should the Tigers sign Hamilton, Pillar and Puig, then hope elite defence and young pitching can help them win a bunch of 2-1 games?

Ben Clemens

12:09

They should because I think all three of those players are good. But 'plan to win a bunch of 2-1 games' is a pretttttty bad strategy. If they're doing that because they actually want to be bad for another year, then sure.

But Billy Hamilton isn't the kind of guy who helps your team win baseball games in 2020. Outfield defense matters less when everything goes over the wall, and hitting dingers matters more than ever.

12:10

Pillar and Puig are probably not standout defenders at this point in their careers, and they're the kind of low-upside veterans that bad teams don't usually sign, but if they just want to entertain the fans, there are worse ways to go than Puig.

Dave

12:10

I'd imagine it's hard being a Padres/Dbacks fan this week

Ben Clemens

12:11

Hopefully this isn't too much of a downer for them, but I don't think they were winning the division *before* this trade?

This seems like a trade that juices them up for the postseason, but they just had no holes at all, and those teams are both still on the upswing.

12:12

There'll be more years for them, and competing for a wild card is pretty fun still.

Snid

12:12

Is Mookie being 5' 9" have any bearing on his future production or the willingness of the Red Sox to pay up?

Ben Clemens

12:13

I haven't done any research on this, but I don't think it should? Anecdotally, I'm often worried about bad-body guys, just because I wonder about their aging and also their motivation to put in the crazy hours of work that modern professional baseball players mostly do.

But Mookie Betts is an absolute freak athlete who just happens to be a little short, and uh, let's just say working really hard doesn't seem to be a problem for him.

5 Run Homer

12:14

Bellinger and Betts is the best outfield duo in baseball since _______?

Ben Clemens

12:14

Trout and Upton, when Upton was better?

Might be better than that, it's close.

12:15

If it's better than that, then we're going to need to go a ways back.

WAR of WAR

12:15

If the trade goes through......Bellinger/Betts vs. Trout/Rendon...Who has more total WAR in 2020?

Ben Clemens

12:15

Related question

12:16

I'd take Rendon/Trout, because I think Rendon is better than the projections say, but this is going to be a fun silly storyline to watch.

Babyfarts

12:16

With the news od Maeda and Stripling getting moved does that increase the value of Urias and May this year or does inning limits and Wood being there still limit their upside?

Ben Clemens

12:17

Both of these things can be true. Urias and May are probably in line for more innings now. But the Dodgers are going to spread things out, limit everyone's workload, and try to coast on their offense while protecting their pitching.

Don't go draft Dodgers pitchers expecting 200 innings of workhorse starts, because they simply don't run the team that way.

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