JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 2/6/2020

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Ben Clemens

12:17

But without those first-half Maeda starts, I'd expect the 4-7 type guys on the roster to pick up more value and innings.

Jerome

12:18

How have the confluence of moves in and around Mookie affected the playoff/WS odds of AL bubble teams, the A's & Rays? On the one hand, Boston is now a lot worse (helps both, Rays more). On the other hand, the Angles are better (hurts both, A's more). Neutral for the A's and improvement for the Rays? What are your thoughts?

Ben Clemens

12:19

I think it's a net benefit for both. Boston got worse by a lot more than LAA got better.

12:20

The Angels have picked up a tiny bit in the outfield and then their starting pitching has gotten better. But it hasn't gotten a ton better -- it's gotten deeper, which is really valuable for them but less important for the A's.

The only reason the Angels getting better matters more to the A's than the Rays is head-to-head matchups (assuming you don't think the West is in play)

12:21

And that's like 13 games different, maybe two Stripling starts different? Eh, it's marginal. Meanwhile the Red Sox went from favored for WC1 to still okay but just in the mix.

David Price

12:21

My career ERA would literally be 3.05 without the Yankees so I for one am glad to leave the AL East

Ben Clemens

12:22

Yeah I think Price is an underrated part of this deal. Assuming the reported money changing hands is right, I'd sign Price to a 3/48 deal and feel happy about it.

He's still a good pitcher!

The AL East's competitive and run-scoring environment plays hell with stats.

Dongo Lewis

12:22

Why are we letting the Red Sox say they had to cut payroll? Huge media market, huge tv deal, owned by Fenway Sports Group that is printing money right now (don't forget they own an incredibly successful Premier League team that hasn't required major investment this year and won't need major investment next year)

Ben Clemens

12:22

I don't really think we are? There are always going to be writers, both local and national, who carry teams' water.

12:23

But my impression from reading the broad swath of coverage is that the team is getting rightly vilified for this move.

And anyone who talks about this trade in the context of being optimal is generally starting off by saying "Now, if you assume that htye have to cut payroll, WHICH IS A WEIRD ASSUMPTION'

5 Run Homer

12:23

Who leads the Angels in IP in 2020?

Ben Clemens

12:24

Stripling or Heaney

I'm a big irrational Andrew Heaney fan b/c I tried to buy shares in him via Fantrax when that was a thing

So let's say him.

5 Run Homer

12:24

And how many IP?

TomBruno23

12:24

What STL Cardinals related story line are you most interested in seeing play out this spring?

Ben Clemens

12:24

150 innings

12:25

let's say

And gotta throw a Cards question in once in a while.

I want to see how the young kids look, and who breaks camp in the outfield.

Oh, and I want to see Kodi Whitley against major league hitters.

So you’re saying theres a chance

12:25

Odds the Betts deal falls through?

Ben Clemens

12:26

Like 1%? You can't put the toothpaste back in the tube.

I don't have a fully fleshed out way to say this, but I don't think any team is doing a trade if they think they're winning it by a razor-thin margin.

They have uncertainty baked in, and no team is trying to trade 100 dollars of perceived value for 101, because there's a built-in winner's curse

12:27

If the other guy is willing to trade with you, he thinks he's winning too

And you tend to end up with the guys you overvalue

So teams make trades when the margin is acceptable.

This is going to cut into those margins but not by THAT much I don' think.

Bookie Metts

12:27

Why did the Giants sign Wilmer Flores

Ben Clemens

12:28

Because Grant Brisbee willed it. He's been all over the Flores beat.