JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 2/6/2020

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 2/6/2020

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Dave

12:55

Elder Scrolls fan?

Ben Clemens

12:55

Oh yes. Can't wait for whatever the heck 6 is gonna be called. Though I imagine this year's game will be Cyberpunk

Marshall

12:56

Verdugo was a top-rated prospect coming into 2019 (although I think Fangraphs was lowest on him) and then had a very good season. Was his trade value higher before or after the 2019 season?

Ben Clemens

12:57

I'd say higher now. But I don't really think it's perfectly modular. His trade value could be different depending on what you're looking for. I'd be willin to believe that his chances of being an absolute superstar have come down

But a lot of the bust potential came out.

Teams trawling for megastars might be less interested, teams looking for good players more so

If that makes sense

Matt Klentak

12:57

Phillies are clear 4th in NL east right, So if the owner says no more spending & they really only have 2 prospects to deal or call up plus Realmuto is a pending FA.. are they closer to blowing the whole thing up than contending for a title?

Ben Clemens

12:58

Nah, I don' think that at all. They're a clear fourth but they're young, have some guys who could outperform, and should be around for years. Plus they can spend more, something something 'stupid money.'

Overbearing Padre

12:58

What moves should the Padres make in the next year to become Contenders with a capital C?

Ben Clemens

12:59

Hard to say without seeing how the team develops. If the center field situation works itself out, that's big. I want to see how their pitching develops. And honestly, though I love Austin Hedges, if he doesn't get a liiiiiiittle better with the bat they might need to do something there.

Mountie Votto

12:59

If David Bell and the Reds play the matchups right (assuming guys don't get grumpy with decreased playing time), I feel like that lineup could be deadly on a day-to-day basis. There are so many options for platooning (esp. in the OF) that the team could really stack the lineup on given days and still have options for the later innings.

Ben Clemens

1:00

100% agree. They are managing a team the way I'd like to think I would from a platoon standpoint.

That outfield is excellent, it's how teams should do it.

I think fans underrate the value of platoons, and you can see that teams like the Rays, Dodgers, and A's get some juiiiiiice out of it.

Reds just seem to be run really well.

twinmh

1:01

Do you think the Angels had something like this in mind when they dumped Cozart's contract? Because they're looking pretty good right now. The 12.6M dead money is now covering two productive players, at the cost of Rengifo and an even-ish swap of Pages for Wilson.

Ben Clemens

1:01

Yeah, I mean, they could have also just spent more? But it makes more sense now, at least, between that and Rendon

Also, there's reportedly still another name going to LAD

Jake from State Farm

1:02

Which is a better value? 1 year of Betts at $27M or 5 years of Verdugo, with the first two at league minimum and 3-5 at arbitration?

Ben Clemens

1:02

Well, again, depends on what you're looking for. For a team like the Dodgers, Betts is a better value, b/c they can produce average seasons for cheap through development and platooning.

I think Dan called it value vs. tempo

and I like that

1:03

squeezing the wins into one position and one year, when you have a high floor, is really good

That said, the Red Sox have some holes. They might value Verdugo more

If they aren't planning on spending to fill those holes in the next few years.

1:04

Because that team is more stars-and-scrubs, while the Dodgers are more stars-and-good-players

Pete Rose

1:04

Speaking of nuance and seriousness, I committed a horrible crime on top of the gambling but we don't talk about that much.

Ben Clemens

1:04

Yeah I think it's fair to say that the gambling stuff about Rose is overblown and everything else is underblown

If that's a word

Snid

1:04

What's Paxton's numbers when he returns? Does he get a rotation spot?

Ben Clemens

1:05

Rotation spot definitely. And I dunno, predicting back injuries is dicey

But eh, maybe the same as before?

I truly have no clue.

YankinSTL

1:05

Should baseball be like football where you can field a different offense and defense? I thought it would make for an interesting game

Ben Clemens

1:05

Hm. I don't think I'd like it. My sense is that you'd end up with a lot more TTO types on offense

1:06

large adult sons, in the vernacular

that would make the defense maybe matter less than I'd hope

I'd be curious to see an experiment with it in fall league or something

1:07

But I think it would detract from my nostalgia and feeling of baseballness

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