JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 2/6/2020

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Ben Clemens

1:07

And that's a big downside

1:07

Max Muncy 3 year deal for $26M and a $13M club option for 2023. Seems underpaid, even accounting for reduced salaries due to arbitration.

Ben Clemens

1:07

I'm writing this deal up. A lot comes down to how much you believe in Muncy. But look at Tommy Pham, who followed a similar path.

1:08

He made 4.1 million in ARB1, then 7.9 this year. That's 12 million, so 14 next year would make the whole thing work

Like.... sure?

1:09

Maybe it's slightly light, but the issue is with arb, not with this particular deal

Pumpsie Green

1:09

You promised Rockies/Montfort chat!

Ben Clemens

1:09

Yeah I've been light on that.

I just find the Monfort stuff so crazy.

Like, is it out of the realm of possibility that the Rockies win 94 games?

Nah

1:10

But they're playing near-0's at C, 1B, 2B, LF, and potentially CF

You need a ton of guys to breka right to get up from there

Teams routinely outperform and underperform expectations

1:11

The year they won 91 games, they had a pythag of an 85 win team

so that's not a huge variance

Jake from State Farm

1:11

"That said, the Red Sox have some holes. They might value Verdugo more" this is key I think. Of course Verdugo isn't Betts but his low cost and team control allows them reach for a star - say, Lindor or Bryant - when the time is right. It can't be underestimated that they are saving $50 million thanks to this deal. That's HUGE.

Ben Clemens

1:12

a star like..... mookie betts?

Like I get why, given that they were trading Betts, they went after a guy like Verdugo

That makes sense to me

But I'd definitely rather just try to win this year

Mountie Votto

1:12

Any chance Tyler Stephenson can make a splash in the minors and fill the need at C for the Reds by mid-season? Guy's been steady in the minors for what feels like forever now.

Ben Clemens

1:13

Missed this one earlier, but sure maybe. It's really dicey projecting prospect catchers

And I generally dislike expecting them to skip a level

But he's a top 100 dude easy, I think. Wouldn't be a shock at all to see him just keep hitting.

By 2021, yeah def

stever20

1:14

Weren't the odds of the Red Sox truly competing this year slim and none? I mean huge questions with the pitching. Who knows what Sale will give them. Price major questions as well... bullpen? And Yankees look like a dynamic team.

Ben Clemens

1:14

I mean maybe our odds are just dumb and awful and bad

But we had them as like the third or fourth best team in baseball?

They won 108 games with this team!

Matt Klentak

1:15

Phillies owner said they will not exceed the luxury tax & spend more. Also I dont think they are young at all? One guy under 25 is Hasley.. they have a lot of guys in their prime right now, I dont think the window is as open as you think

Ben Clemens

1:15

I'll have to look into it more, I suppose. But I don't htink anyone's on the downswing yet. I do think that Haseley is kind of bad, though?

As a fellow UVa alum, I hate to say it

1:16

But he's a fourht outfielder in starting outfielder's clothing

Visitor

1:16

So I just read up on the issue (like you advised me to do)... F*** Gabe Kapler.

Ben Clemens

1:16

Had to edit you slightly, my friend.

Uh, yeah.

Jason

1:16

The NLE was the hardest division to predict last year because anyone but the Marlins could win it and whoever won it had a decent shot at a WS and here we are again

Ben Clemens

1:16

Yeah. Throw in NLC this year to that mix, with the Reds really getting down to brass tacks.

1:17

Although NLC winner doesn't have as good of a shot at the world series, because I think the top-end of the NLE teams is better

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