JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 2/8/21

Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page

Ben Clemens

2:45

Seems pretty reasonable to me! He looked awesome in the KBO, feels like a steal of a contract, it's not as though they have a second baseman and two corner outfielders who are locked in forever

5 Run Homer

2:45

If all they do is deaden the ball wouldn't that tip the balance too far towards pitchers? The bouncy ball is all that's keeping strikeouts from completely overrunning the game

Ben Clemens

2:45

Depends on how much they deaden it by. Looks like some of the analysts who Eno talked to thought it would be 5% off of home run rates

If that's the case, it won't be the end of things

If it's more like 10%, things will be bad

Marc

2:46

MLB.com recently released their rotation rankings and placed the Yankees fourth, while Depth Charts has them first. However, this seems to be putting a lot of faith that both their starters returning from an extensive absence (Kluber, Taillon, Montgomery, Severino, German) won't get injured again and their minor league depth (Garcia, Schmidt, King) won't bottom out from facing MLB hitters for an extended period of time. What percentage would you put the rotation at actually finishing top-5 in WAR?

Ben Clemens

2:46

Oh, that's totally why

Depth Charts projections have a hard time accounting for pitchers returning from injury, basically the Yankees rotation in a nutshell

We're not doing probabilistic weights for their likelihood of pitching or something

2:47

I'll give them 45% at finishing top 5 in WAR

and also, if Taillon and Kluber both make 25 starts, I think they'll be the best

But take depth charts with a grain of salt, particularly for pitchers with questionable health

The Opener

2:47

Would Kevin Kiermaier fit in that Pillar/Bader group?

Ben Clemens

2:48

Off the top of my head, I think he was too good on offense at peak to quite count

He had three pretty solid offensive seasons

But current Kiermaier maybe

dag.nah.bit

2:49

Dayton Moore alluded the need for a lefty bat in January (Alec Lewis reported).... which LHB is available that would make the most sense to them? Lewis compiled a nice list including Brad Miller, Marwin, Gardner, etcetera. Who would fit best from the available LHB in the market? Thanks for chatting

Ben Clemens

2:49

Miller for me

I think that Miller is really underrated and might just be an excellent starter

5 Run Homer