JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 3/13/23

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 3/13/23

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Ben Clemens

2:00

Hey everybody, welcome to the chat. I'm slightly fried from my recent travels, so I'm not gonna go particularly long today, but let's talk about some baseball

Yeah Well Hiura Towel

2:00

It's been a few years so let's ask this again: Who will have the better career, Acuña, Soto, Tatis, or Vlad Jr.?

Ben Clemens

2:01

I'm on Soto by a good deal out of that quartet

2:02

No knock on the other guys, but he's done it more consistently and in a way that I think bodes better for his future performance

trophy

1

Dan

2:03

The Angels aren't even my favorite team but I want this season to have a Trout/Ohtani MVP debate and for the answer not to be obvious.

Ben Clemens

2:04

That sounds delightful

I will say that from my two-game sample of watching Trout in the WBC, he's washed

2:05

That said.... c'mon, he's probably great still

Jordan Walker Buehler Texans Rangers

2:07

What's your take on how the Cardinals will manage Jordan Walker this year? That dude is *electric*

Ben Clemens

2:07

I think he's gonna force his way into the lineup at some point if he keeps hitting like he is so far in spring trianing

2:08

but in keeping with my general view of spring, I'm focusing on what my view was in January, which is that I wouldn't be heartbroken if he started in Triple-A

it's not like there's no one good in front of him

Southern BrewCrew

2:08

Really enjoyed the Corbin Carroll article. Was wondering what is the balance between the amount of money and the risk? (I guess from the team's perspective) I mean that is a lot of money to Carroll and deals like Kingery and Evan White looked good at the time but clearly haven't worked out to this point.

Ben Clemens

2:09

Doesn't really seem too meaningful to me, in the context of what you'd expect to pay Carroll. It's a portfolio deal, like I said. If you were only allowed to give out one contract extension ever, maybe that would matter more?

But you can sign a ton!~

And if even 70% of them save you money, you'll probably come way out ahead in the long run while giving players earning certainty

Inaccessible Rail

2:10

Going into spring training, I thought the pitch clock would help batters a tiny bit. But now that I'm a pitch clock expert after watching a few games on TV, I think maybe I was wrong? Maybe the clock actually helps pitchers?

Ben Clemens

2:10

I think it might help pitchers, but I think more likely it doesn't help either side particularly much and batters are just not doing a good job adjusting yet

Guest

2:10

Out of curiosity, how would you define a knuckleball? Seems like a random question, I know, but noticed something unusual with a random minors pitcher, and wanted to get your definition without accidentally spoiling who it is.

Ben Clemens

2:10

I think it's grip-based

Wander

2:10

ZiPS projects Dalton Varsho to breakout offensively big time but struggle defensively. Could you break this down?

Ben Clemens

2:11

I cannot

2:12

Like, ZiPS is a black box on purpose

Bubba

2:12

The Mets are shutting down Quintana for 3 months. Do you think they stick with internal options (Peterson, Megill)?

Ben Clemens

2:12

I do

I think that's a beneift of signing a ton of guys like Quintana while having those internal options.... you can fall back on the internal choices if your mid-tier signings get hurt or don't pan out

Appa Yip Yip

2:13

I understand that you are not supposed to believe in anything you see in spring training, but what if I really really want to?

Ben Clemens

2:13

Oh, then you totally should

Jon

2:13

Looking at statcast: Trout rates very poorly in jump but still very highly in OAA. Is he getting by on his speed? Route efficiency?

Ben Clemens

2:14

Yeah. A lot of fast-jump guys have worse route efficiency

2:15

Davy Andrews wrote about this

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/learning-from-statcasts-outfield-jump-metr...

Appa Yip Yip

2:15

Who would you take on your team in a utility role right now: Cavan Biggio, or Addison Barger?

Ben Clemens

2:15

Cavan, I'm still in

Oaktown Blues

2:16

Is contact rate sticky in 25 PA? I ask because Cristian Pache has yet to strikeout in spring in that sample size.

Ben Clemens

2:16

Honestly, I don't remember, but again: spring training stats, don't read too much into them. Even if they're reliable, they're certainly not stsable

Broken Bat

2:16

I think I have seen this movie before: Rangers CF of future who has like 40 at bats in AA, Evan Carter is being projected to replace the Ranger CF of the future who still has not arrived in the present ie. Willy Taveras. Why do clubs encourage such projection nonsense this far out? And… at 24 is Taveras still as highly rated as was his projection at age 20?

Ben Clemens

2:17

No clue. But let me say this: I'm a big Evan Carter fan

I don't know if he's going to be great

2:19

but he's hitting a ton right now and in a way that historically means his chances of success are high

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