JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 3/15/21

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Ben Clemens

2:23

There is

There's a 'split seasons' checkbox to the left of multiple seasons

Hit that, and you should be good to go

Greg

2:24

The Pirates start the season off with a miraculous win streak and are N-0. At what N do you start to feel hopeful and excited and optimistic about their chances of making the playoffs?

Ben Clemens

2:24

This is a really cool question that I'm going to continue to ponder while I give you my snap answer

Kate

2:24

Rodgers had me all excited and then he went and got dinged up already. Assuming he can get and stay healthy, do you think we see a legit breakout this year?

Ben Clemens

2:25

Now this one I can wholeheartedly endorse. Brendan Rodgers is one of my constsant breakout picks

2:26

And I'm always wrong, largely b/c of PT

So I'm in if he can stay healthy all year

Mets fan

2:26

How long would it take Luis Guillorme to learn how to catch? The bat is probably a little light at 3b and I would think his hands would play well behind the plate

Ben Clemens

2:26

Too long, I think, sadly

He's already 26, and catchers take a notoriously long time to develop

MoonBeamMcSwine

2:27

Last spot in the pitching rotation for the Indians has been a battle between Cal Quantrill Jr, Logan Allen and Adam Plutko.. Who do you see taking that fifth spot?.. Is McStix (McKenzie) in danger of starting 2021 in MiLB?..

Ben Clemens

2:27

I think that McKenzie probably won't start in the minors b/c of the delayed start to the season, but I could see them skipping some of his starts for maintenance reasons

2:28

I've been into Quantrill in general, haven't been following their spring stuff specifically, but I'll still say him

I am the walrus

2:28

Chances Lux gets 500 AB's this year?

Ben Clemens

2:28

Not high. Maybe 20%? I think he plays a lot of the season in the majors but they'll platoon him decently often

2:28

Are there any spring training stats that you pay attention too, or is it all mostly noise?

Ben Clemens

2:29

It's mostly noise. That said, I care about pitcher velocity a lot, and follow Jeff Zimmerman's velocity tracker

That thing is super useful, let me grab a link

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18n0govdK7o67igaKXeK64DM2Z12n11...

Kate

2:29

Is there anyone having a slow spring that actually has you worried? Same question but flipped, anyone having a good spring you actually think is meaningful?

Ben Clemens

2:30

In that vein, I'm very interested in Alex Reyes. Throwing hard and with new mechanics (more Driveline short-arm-y than before)

Casey Mize has been throwing harder, also a good sign

2:31

Also curious about Bumgarner, looks like he had an uptick

Charley

2:31

in a 10 team dynasty, I am in need of pitching help. What are the ceilings for John Means, Gausman, and Musgrove (those 3 are the top available rotation pitchers right now), this year, and maybe beyond this year?

Ben Clemens

2:32

I think Musgrove's ceiling is highest, and it's like legit #2 starter ceiling

That said, I'm not 100% that I'm right on Means

He is a very different pitcher than he was when he came up and it's hard to wrap my brain around it

Brad

2:32

Combined 2019 and 2020 WAR Leader SP, Degrom 9.6, Cole, 8.8, Bieber 8.8, Lynn 8.0, of note Bauer 5.8, Darvish 5.5

Ben Clemens

2:33

But I thought you said top 3!

Also, yeah, there are more things than just 'how much war was produced in this year' to being an ace

diadem

2:33

Who does Roster Resource use for their projections, line ups, rotations and closers?

Ben Clemens

2:33

For projections, it pulls in Depth Charts projections, which are a 50/50 blend of Steamer and ZiPS

For everything else, that's Jason Martinez tirelessly watching freaking everything

2:34

And putting them together

It's a staggering amount of work

Matt Damon

2:34

MATT. DAMON.

Ben Clemens

2:34

My friend, I'm sorry that KG slandered your performances

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