JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 3/15/21

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Ben Clemens

2:34

I think you were great in Rounders

Appa Yip Yip

2:34

Robbie Ray has been throwing strikes. It's 8 innings, but if he can consistently find the zone what kind of season could he be looking at?

Ben Clemens

2:34

I'm bought in

Or, well

2:35

I think he can be the Robbie Ray of old again

Mid-to-upper 3's ERA, lower FIP, gets hit hard

Lots of strikeouts but trouble with walks

2:36

That'd be a great outcome for Toronto, a solid number two to Ryu's number one

Brad

2:36

Ben, you are right, you can also add in Lynn pitching at that time in a bad ballpark for SP and a terrible defense behind him and in the AL...

Ben Clemens

2:36

Last one on this

FIP adjusts for park

And doens't consider defense

And you're now just trying to double count them

Dave

2:36

Ben, Fangraphs currently has Adrian Morejon slotted as the Padres #5 in their depth chart rotation. What's your outlook on him over the next few years - SP, RP, swingman and do you think he is any good (floor/ceiling)? Thanks

Ben Clemens

2:36

I think he's good, yeah

2:37

I'm not great at analyzing prospect arms, to be honest

I feel a lot more confident on hitters

I think he's likely to stick as a starter though

2:38

He has a bunch of different pitches, which can't hurt

2:39

Walks are just always going to be aconcern given his minor league record and the book on him, but walks being a problem is hardly a unique thing

Guest

2:39

Matt Damon might have been good in Rounders, but John Malkovich's "Russian" accent is an albatross dragging that movie's overall quality down.

Ben Clemens

2:39

Oh, hard disagree

2:40

I think that his patently ridiculous Russian accent is a selling point

He sounds like me trying to do a Russian accent and it just consistently makes me happy

If I had a dollar for every time I said "All day he check check check"

clh

2:40

Does Casey Mize start in AAA this year due to his lack of command?

Ben Clemens

2:40

I think so, partially b/c it gets the Tigers an extra year and partially b/c they'd like to see him work on his command for realsies

2:41

But I'm still buying

Guest

2:41

Speaking of the Mets catching situation, I saw an article last week assigning grades to FA contracts, and they gave the McCann contract a D. That's a little harsh, isn't it? The AAV value is more or less right in line with what a lot of people were predicting. 4 years seems long, but it's not that long, and it's unlikely they would have offered it unless at least one other team was offering 3. And really, there's a pretty decent chance that he produces more than $40M worth of value over 4 years.

Ben Clemens

2:41

Yeah, I think a D is kinda harsh

It's a C contract to me

Maybe C+

I think the reasoning behind people not liking it is that they could have gone after Realmuto instead, but that's unfair to McCann

Didace

2:42

Ahhhh, Spring. The Snow melts, the robins return, it's time to file taxes.... and every expert predicts the Mets will be better than they turn out to be.

Ben Clemens

2:43

Indeed! That said, I think they'll be good this year!

I am the walrus

2:43

I'm hearing Vaughn has a chance to start out of camp for WSox. I think they send him down for 2 week? You?

Ben Clemens

2:43

I actually think there's a decent chance they don't bother

2:44

I want to be clear, I have no inside information whatsoever

But the downside here is basically that you swap a year of Super 2 arb for a free agency year