JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 3/15/21

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 3/15/21

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Ben Clemens

2:54

Here's my thinking

2:55

The Pirates are always going to be held back by ownership

Whatever you think of their FO, it's hard to win if your owner doesn't want to

The Cubs look like they're going to blow it up after this year, so not enough time for a turnaround

The Reds are doing a weird semi-blowup right now

2:56

That means the smart money is on the two teams who aren't doing that, and I just like St. Louis's financial might a bit better

Also, as a quick bow on the Arozarena comment, I looked up the futures odds, and he's +350, so 3.5 to 1

2:57

Feeling good about the field

5 Run Homer

2:57

Is it smart to be worried about Vlad? I've been watching him for two years now and it feels like he might just be hitting 105 mph grounders forever

Ben Clemens

2:57

Smart? No idea. Understandable and relatable? Absolutely

That's the fear, that he never elevates it

and the early results are not incredible

Appa Yip Yip

2:57

Would losing McGuire on waivers to clear the way for Kirk really end up mattering to the Jays if you get the better bat in the lineup to start the season?

Ben Clemens

2:57

I do think it would matter.

2:58

One: we can't know the future, McGuire could be the best of the three in two years

Two: There's probably value to be had from him at some point, even if you resign yourself to trading him

Okay, basically just those two, I thought I was gonna throw another one in

2:59

There are tradeoffs if it means less AB's for Kirk

But I think that a few weeks of fewer AB's is a reasonable price to pay for the chance to flip McGuire for something later, personally

Guest

2:59

Back to Peralta, I was greedy as well and didn't keep him. So how high would you go to secure his services? I'm hoping to get him in the $10 range, but too many more outings like his last will likely push that higher.

Ben Clemens

3:00

These contextual questions are hard b/c it matters how your league looks and so on, but I'd probably go up to $13 or so? Don't miss a player you're big on for a buck

Appa Yip Yip

3:00

Cookies: crunchy or chewy?

Ben Clemens

3:00

Here's where I lose half my readers :(

I think the type of cookie matters a lot

If you've had Tate's Bakeshop cookies, those are ideal crunchy ones

3:01

And I really enjoy that kind of cookie, that's probably actually my favorite

Fresh-baked cookies, on the other hand, I usually like those chewy

Tate's has just figured out a good way to have their cookies be desirable even after being shipped

3:02

I think the key draw of crunchiness is that it holds up well, and the key draw of chewiness is if you can have them hot and gooey

Chip

3:02

Does Tejay Antone start or do the long-relief thing this year, mostly?

Ben Clemens

3:02

I think mostly long-relief thing, but long-term I bet starting

Dan

3:02

What if baseball let you care lots of relievers but if you bring one in mid inning the next inning starts with an intentional walk. I like relievers in baseball it's the pitching changes that are lame.

Ben Clemens

3:03

That's a funky one, I don't know though

Bringing in a reliever mid-inning to spell your starter is hardly a dramatic strategy

Now, a second mid-inning replacement, boo

Fred Mar-Lynn

3:03

What's your take on the Marlins' 2021 playoff chances? I would think there are different opinions amongst writers, more so than any other team.

Ben Clemens

3:03

I'm not as pessimistic as our playoff odds (1.2%), but I'm pessimistic

I think they're going to need three or four breakouts to contend, the division is really stacked and they have a lot of holes

3:04

Basically if the pitching staff goes nuclear, I can see it

But short of that, it's not happening

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