JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 3/18/24

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 3/18/24

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Ben Clemens

2:29

We just have such a long sample of the passive approach not paying off for him, and he just sticks with it

Maybe at this point he just has bad strike zone recognition, I dunno

he just does not swing at enough strikes. And yet he has contact issues so he's not walking a ton either

Rocky Top

2:29

Thoughts on KB in 2024? Over the injuries, and serviceable in fantasy baseball???

Ben Clemens

2:29

Yeah I'm in!

2:30

I mean, I've been wrong this way before

And I think the Rockies are using him in a really strange way still, the whole Bryant excitement was his ability to shift around

But I think he's gonna be a lot better than '23 and that the Coors effect is gonna make him a legit player in fantasy

Insert Witty Name Here

2:30

Do you have any concerns of the first half of Trea Turner of last year? I know he finished in fire, but any reason to think he’ll decline this year?

Ben Clemens

2:30

I absolutely do

2:31

I'm much more steamer than zips on this one (steamer thinks he's a 3.8 WAR player, ZiPS 5.1)

2:32

I just have a hard time projecting hte power surge to stay where it was, and I'm not in love with his defense, basically

Sonny

2:32

Colton Cowser or Jackson Merrill for this year? Does Merrill have a longer leash?

Ben Clemens

2:32

I think that Merrill has a long leash because there's just not much behind him

WHy didn't the Padres sign Michael A. Taylor or Adam Duvall? Great question!

Bruno Mars Roulette

2:32

I'm not a doctor, but realistic chance we get over 20 starts from Cole? The injury still concerns me

Ben Clemens

2:33

Yeah I think pretty unlikely. 15 seems like a more reasonable top end to me

Yeah looks like Roster Resource has him down for 16

Bruno Mars Roulette

2:33

Better breakout candidate, Cole Ragans or Bryan Woo?

Ben Clemens

2:33

I mean if you're allowed to count Ragans as a breakout candidate, Ragans

He already broke out

Sir Nerdlington

2:33

How close are we nerds to quantifying the value of pitch calling/sequencing?

We have one catcher on our 14U team who consistently gets strong performances from his pitchers while the other catcher is pretty predictable in how he calls pitches (e.g. first pitch FB). The latter's pitchers tend to have blow up innings more often.

There must be something there.

Ben Clemens

2:33

There's definitely something there

I don't need it to be quantified

2:34

I like there being some fuzzy factors in sports

And I think it's one of those things where the effects are so complex, the quantification is gonna have huge error bars and be very player-specific anyway

correct game calling and sequencing depends heavily on context

KC Pain

2:34

Thoughts of Benson breaking out in Cincy w the extra PT?

Ben Clemens

2:34

I think it's a smart bet

2:35

I'm not really a believer in the profile, but I like betting on playing time

bringbackpologrounds

2:35

With Cole injured, are there any future HOF pitchers in their prime playing this season?

Ben Clemens

2:35

I missed answering this one earlier but I wanted to come back to it

2:36

Your top contenders are: Wheeler, Strider, Yamamoto, Burnes, Valdez

then there are a bunch of people behind that, but those are the five whose trajectories seem HoF-adjacent to me

obviously none of them are anywhere near 50% to make the hall of fame

But those are my best bets

Jenny

2:36

Do you think Gavin Lux will have the breakout that was suspected before the ACL injury? And what does that look like? .270/15/10?

Ben Clemens

2:36

man, I understand why the Dodgers keep trying to make Lux happen, but at some point you have to accept that it won't

sad

3

2:37

I think that this is it, and I'm down on a breakout, I feel like his having the yips is just a really bad sign

2:38

it's a freaking pressure cooker in LA, that's not idea

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