JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 3/23/26

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Cameron Kear

2:28

The Rangers are still the last team not named the Dodgers to win the WS so at least we got that going for us.

Ben Clemens

2:28

hard to argue iwth that

Andrew

2:28

what about Langford, down on him too or is he one of the few Rangers you’re high on this year

Ben Clemens

2:29

no I like him. I don't have any hot takes about the inaccuracy of projections of their players or anything. It's just.... it's not that great of an offense for a team with durability concerns on the pitching side

I think we're mostly getting the players right. or at least, we're making responsible projections. I just don't like the depth is all

Andrew

2:29

As a tigers fan should I be as optimistic as I am (not just about this year but the future) or should I be tempering expectations more. I love our gm manager combo

Ben Clemens

2:30

I'd say overall optimistic, but I think that the Skubal arb situation is a very bad sign for management

like, I've read some of the reporting, and no one's saying whether they were just carrying the league's water by trying to keep arb salaries down, really wanted to make a point, just goofed up and submitted an insultingly low number on accident, whatever

but that situation was not good, it definitely will not play well with players

2:32

and I think that there's at least some chance that it suggests some extreme aversion to spending on ownership side. the valdez contract makes that more complicated to evaluate and makes me more optimistic

2:33

good gm, good manager, no argument there. want to see how they handle a)competing with Skubal on an expiring deal b)this winter

Insert Witty Name Here

2:33

How would the cap work for existing contracts? Like how would the dodgers get under their massive payroll?

Ben Clemens

2:33

just a phased implemtnation. The Dodgers have 150 million in payroll commitments for 2030, for example. The Mets have 80 million. you can do this. you just can't do it next year

Mike Tyson: designated hitter

2:34

I keep thinking Mcgonigle most realistic scenario is he’s more of a 40-60 range player for the next 10 years than a top 15 superstar. Am I crazy?

Ben Clemens

2:34

most realistic is always "not a top 15 superstar" so I totally agree

that's just math

Insert Witty Name Here

2:34

How do you mentally update the projections of a player where their stat history isn’t great (which is the majority of the inputs I think) vs their talent level? Specifically thinking McLain here.

Ben Clemens

2:35

check out Dan's boom and bust hitters for 2026 for a discussion of McLain

I basically just leave myself much wider error bars for guys like him, injury recovery cases

his true talent might have legitimately been temporarily depressed in 2025, then bounce back

bosoxforlife

2:35

Do you see a cloud developing over the season as the impending labor situation (strife) edges closer and closer? The thought of another 1994 already has me in need of therapy.

Ben Clemens

2:35

Oh 100%

the amount of airtime already dedicated to it is miserable

let us watch baseball!

Babip Roberts

2:36

Tong's inability to move the ball east-west is becoming increasingly concerning. If he continues to fail at this, would you move him to the bullpen straight away? Or would you tinker with his arm slot and see if the worse fastball shape might is worth whatever horizontal gains might be made?

Ben Clemens

2:36

Nah, I mean, pure north/south guys can be okay I think, and his fastball is so good taht messing with his arm angle and delivery feels off to me. I'd just keep letting him try to develop, and if it reallllly won't work, we can re-evaluate in a year. but like.... you have a guy with an outlier pitch. I'd much rather work with that outlier than try to mess with it

mike

2:37

I agree you need a floor if you have a cap, but will bad teams just sign a couple mediocre vets? I can't see them overpaying young guys. I've noodled this some, and will bad teams just sign one great player (will they want to sign there, I think money>winning for most)?

Ben Clemens

2:37

well, the supply of good players isn't going to change

that's why I think that you need to overhaul service time rules

the current free agencdy system doesn't have enough mobile, freely available talent to work

David

2:38

In your excellent piece on how long Aaron Judge will hold court, you said people could quibble over who the greatest player is at the moment. Given that, why do so many people persist in calling Ohtani the GOAT? Sure he’s uniquely talented, but don’t you agree that it’s debatable whether he’s better than Aaron Judge - let alone an handful of inner-circle Hall of Famers?

Ben Clemens

2:38

it's because he pitches and hits, and because you watch him play and go 'oh, yeah, no one's been like that before'

but it's semantic and honestly, I try to stay out of it

i love watching both of them play

2:39

no need to diminish one to appreciate the other

Pat

2:39

The other thing reason to bring up McGonigle is Detroit not some 65-97 team that has nothing to play for this year. This is the last year with Skubal, they're a slight favorite for the AL Central & will be battling for that or possibly a WC spot or playoff seeding if they exceed expectations. Would be a shame to lose out on the division/WC/bye by 1-2 games because they decided to play games & play Javy Baez for 4 weeks at SS to start the year. In fact, it would be criminal if they did that.

Ben Clemens

2:39

Yeah, I skipped over this but it's a great point as well

Nate

2:40

Seems like several star pitchers in recent years have struggled to rebound from TJ surgery...have any thoughts on guys like Strider/McClanahan struggling to bounce back (but Ohtani being seemingly fine with his)? And what it might mean for guys like Cole/Burnes this year? And if I should be worried about Skubal being a ticking time bomb in my keeper league?

Ben Clemens

2:41

Several have struggled, several haven't. It's very hard to tell who will be in which group, ex-ante. Also, it's very hard to tell if guys will just need a few extra years to recover. I basically increase my mental estimation of volatility, because it's hard to know who will be unaffected and who won't, but if you look at the population of TJ returners, the average result is 'worse than before' with big variance

also: I do two things differently in my head. One, I pay a lot of attention to the first month back or so to see if a guy is going to hit the ground running, and I look at that (particularyl the peripheral stats from that) to think about them the rest of the year

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