JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 3/23/26

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Ben Clemens

2:42

two: I re-evaluate in the offseason. Sometimes guys just need a year to get right, and theyr'e good the next time they try to throw. So like, Strider was looking pretty sharp in spring training! Ohtani might have needed a year to truly get sharp, we don't know. Re-evaluate at hte start of a new year and be willing to accept talent level changes, basically

Realism Man

2:42

No system works with the Dodgers bringing XXXXX times more money than the Pirates. Lotsa systems would work if the Dodgers only brought in XX times more money than the Pirates.

Ben Clemens

2:43

sounds like the owners should agree to some type of revenue sharing if they want a cap, then

kind of seems like this isn't the players' problem at all...

Insert Witty Name Here

2:43

What are your thoughts on the Phils extending Sanchez and Luzardo? Do you think they’ll live up to the standards the projections are giving them?

Ben Clemens

2:44

I've always been a little low on Luzardo relative to consensus, so I guess I'll say that I think that one's okay, good use of money but not some crazy slam dunk

Sanchez? great, glad they're giving him a little more and it looks fair to both sides

I think the projections are reasonable. they're high for sanchez b/c he's been great for a while now, and medium for Luzardo because he's been boom/bust. Dan had a whole article on extensions where he noted that ZiPS would not offer Luzardo that much, for example

2:45

if I'm the Phils, though, I make this move, 100%. THeir hitting core seems like it's still working. Their pitching core was aging. This extends their window, I think?

Davy Andrews

2:45

Hey Ben!

Ben Clemens

2:45

hi Davy

Baseball learner

2:45

Would reducing service time kill the minor leagues? I feel like teams put in time/money on minor leaugers and are hoping to get a payoff from that before losing them to FA. 6 years is too much, but how many years is fair?

Ben Clemens

2:46

well, it's tough to say, because the minor leauges are in the process of being killed

by the league, on purpose, to cut costs

i think it might be fair to say 'well, we'll artificially limit how much players earn via a salary cap. that's the payoff you get for letting them reach free agency'

2:47

'We want a salary cap.' 'Well would you give the players faster time to free agency?' 'What? no! that would require a concession and we want our cap without giving anything up'

not a very reasonable argument

bosoxforlife

2:47

There are few things that I find difficult to accept but shortening the time a player is under team control is one. Finding a better way to pay good young players is the answer. I love long term deals for young players because it means I get to watch Rafaela, Anthony and Bello for many years. Attaching yourself to a team also means attaching yourself to the players. Just like Williams, Yastremski, Rice and Evans watching the same men for many years is special.

Ben Clemens

2:47

no cap, then

look at the capped sports. they have short team control. that's how the caps can work

2:48

it's just too difficult to actually have teams spend money within that band otherwise. because if you have long, cheap team control, and Pittsburgh is bad, they just are NOT going to sign 15 bad vets to add to that

they probably can't even

if you have these long, fixed, cheap contracts for lots of your team, you just can't do cap/floor

Ricky

2:48

Do you believe the offensive production Grisham and Rice showed last season will continue, or are you expecting a regression?

Ben Clemens

2:48

yes to both?

I'm a huge Grisham fan

2:49

I've had him on multiple top 50 trade values (not recently, but when he had more team control remaining)

but I don't think he's gonna have a 130 wRC+ again

2:50

Rice, I mean, I'm closer to thinking he could repeat it. he looked really good last year, and he was still adjusting to the bigs too

but he was REALLY good last year. he could be a little worse and still be quite valuable

noah lowry appreciator

2:50

The Rockies playing at Coors field seems like a severe disadvantage. I get it, yes their front office decision making/ownership also leaves a lot to be desired. But it seems like other factors that are setting them back. On the pitcher side, how can they ever attract a pitcher of decent value to sign with them? Not to mention that they likely have to go through more pitchers each season due to the amount of batters faced/runs scored. On the hitter side, it seems like the disadvantage is the adjustment to road ballparks. I feel like this needs to be addressed, but maybe I'm crazy.

Ben Clemens

2:50

I mean... what's the solution?

2:51

I'm not sure if I buy it, but also, even if I do, so what?

should we lower Denver's elevation?

if the answer is to just not have a team in Colorado, I don't like that at all. It's a great baseball town. Incredible stadium. Ownership spends money

not well, but they spend it!

2:52

they have a humidor. they've tried stuff. maybe they'll try more things. But I almost don't think it matters whether there's a disadvantage, because there's no solution

Ricky

2:53

I was honestly surprised he accepted the QO. Even though he probably wouldn’t have reached 22 AAV, I certainly thought he could get 16-18mil per for 3-4 years.

Ben Clemens

2:53

(Grisham, presumably) yeah me too! I think that a desire to hit FA again with no QO played a part, but next year sounds liek a VERY bad year to hit free agency, personally

maybe he was pre-emptively worried about that and just decided to take the cash?

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