JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 3/28/22

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 3/28/22

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Ben Clemens

2:59

I think they are neat for illustration and say nothing about what will happen to the player after that

Or, at least near-nothing

They aren't designed to do that, I think they're just fun tools. I also expect Freeman to age a bit better than Olson, though, b/c Freeman has already aged more than Olson and remained good!

Phil

2:59

As a Red Sox fan: I think how streakiness is responded to depends a lot on the personality of the player. I remember sitting out in the bleachers for a game during Tony Clark's one awful year in Boston, and they loved him out there: "you're due, man." Jose Offerman, on the other hand. . .

Ben Clemens

3:00

Seems reasonable

Vin

3:00

It would be interesting if you wrote your articles in bits and pieces and then Meg had to edit them together into one post.

Ben Clemens

3:00

Today in 'Meg's nightmares'

Dan

3:00

Fangraphs depth charts show the Yankees have the second best rotation. Elsewhere I've seen people rank them 6-16. The 16 seems absurdly low but is the discrepancy another example of you can't just add up a team war and use that as a projection?

Ben Clemens

3:00

16 is too low, for sure

3:01

I think it boils down to this: the Yankees had the 6th-best rotation by WAR last year, but I would assume that if you asked Yankees fans they'd guess lower

3:02

They get more value than most teams do out of the back of the rotation, or at least they did last year

3:03

But yeah, adding up team WAR and using it as a projection doesn't handle injury risk very well, and we knew that about last year's Yankees

I believe I even wrote the PPR for that one

3:04

We projected them 3rd last year, and haha, first line:

If this one looks optimistic to you, I find it hard to disagree.

"If this one looks optimistic to you, I find it hard to disagree."

Guest

3:04

Hi Ben, do you think Oneil Cruz has a chance of making the OD?

Ben Clemens

3:04

Ah, what a delight

3:05

Let me tell you what Ben Cherington said about Cruz

3:06

Oof, sorry, Derek Shelton, Cherington is only paraphrased in the article I found

"There's still development to be had there. Oneil is goin to have an impact on our club this year at some point. When that is, I don't think any of us know."

Let me translate for you

3:07

"After the Super Two cutoff, he should start looking for apartments in Pittsburgh."

Farhandrew Zaidman

3:07

Jake Lamb....once again an above average major league hitter??? How do the Dodgers keep doing it?

Ben Clemens

3:07

So, I kind of believe it?

3:08

But as Paul Sporer has pointed out to me, Lamb was pretty good before injuries derailed him

And he wasn't bad the past two years! Just barely played

I mean, he wasn't *good*

But he was still hitting the crap out of the ball, which has always been his carrying tool

Montoyo

3:09

Am I going to give Tapia 450+ PAs like RosterResource says, will my front office give me another bat, or will I play some combination of Kirk/Espinal/Bird more expected?

Ben Clemens

3:09

I tend to think that his PT will get shaved down somewhat

3:10

More the Espinal/Kirk/Bird version, but I could also see them getting a rental outfielder at the deadline

Nice to have a lefty, and Tapia is fun to watch, but I don't think he should be a full-time outfielder for a contending team

J6

3:10

What's the most overlooked aspect of defense that brings under the radar value? Cutting off the ball in gaps? Scoops? Tags? Throwing accuracy?

Ben Clemens

3:11

Ooh!

I don't think it's throwing accuracy

Those are pretty well accounted for

I think that cutting off doubles into singles is VERY hard to account for and also tremendously valuable

3:12

That's my bet for most overlooked, because it's just the hardest to account for. The other ones are difficult too but outliers are less common

Numpty

3:12

If you could never watch another baseball game but could still read about it, analyze data, and listen to others talk about it, how interested would you be in following the game? (Assume for the sake of the question you don’t earn a living doing these activities.)

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