JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 3/3/24

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 3/3/24

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Ben Clemens

1:48

Hey everyone, I'm starting the chat a little early today. I have a dog training session around 11:45 (ish), and I'll squeeze out all the time I can before then, but plan on me bailing quickly when I get a 5 minute warning or so

In the meantime, let's answer some questions about baseball. And board games, since I see one in the queue already

Some kinda Mook

1:48

Also, my wife and I have played through almost all of the Baker Street Irregulars pack in Sherlock Holmes: Consulting detective. Really fun! Thanks for the recommendation like a year ago!

Ben Clemens

1:48

Amazing, I'm glad you like it. We just played a Sherlock a few weeks ago. We've been on an Azul and Cascadia kick recently, both of which remain great

Some kinda Mook

1:49

Ben, who ya got over the next five years: Yordan or Vlad?

Ben Clemens

1:49

Oh man, Yordan by a mile

Mike

1:49

Outside of the White Sox finishing last, would any order in the AL Central standings surprise you?

Ben Clemens

1:49

Agreed, that's the only thing that feels definite

The rest of the teams are really evenly matched. Also, they all have pretty well-defined weaknesses, so it'll be easy to improve at the deadline if that appeals to any of them

Should make for a very fun race

Birdsong

1:49

Last year around this time, Hayden Birdsong was the #17 prospect in the Giants organization. Then he added the kick change and almost immediately became a top 50 overall prospect. Would you say that he was being undervalued in the original report, or is the kick change just that much of a game changer? (I know there’s been a ton of articles praising the pitch.) Also, what is Birdsong’s future outlook like?

Ben Clemens

1:50

I think it's probably many things all together. Pitching prospects are notoriously tough to get a handle on, first of all, as my research into prospect grades showed

I think that makes general sense because single pitches sometimes -- not always but sometimes -- completely change the outlook for a guy

I think that in retrospect, he was probably underrated, but I think that happens with a lot of pitchers

1:52

The changeup is good, and I mean, he's always had many plus pitches. The bigger issue has been command, and well, he walked 14% of major leaguers he faced

I'd basically say he's overrated now, but in a 'you can never tell if pitchers will develop command' way

Alby

1:52

"Yordan by a mile" even with the greater injury risk? I worry about a Tony Olive/Rico Carty situation with those knees.

Ben Clemens

1:52

People have worried about that every day since Yordan debuted

I'm not saying there's no risk

but

1:53

From 2021-2024, so including Vlad's two spike years, Yordan has racked up 2290 PA, 165 wrC+. Vlad has 2783 PA, 145 wRC+

1:54

Yordan's been worth comfortably more while playing less time, and we're picking the sample to flatter Vlad there

Corbin Barrels

1:54

Bummed about Carroll getting pulled early, but he's been hitting some absolute moonshots during the Cactus League; is it "just Spring", or how much should I buy into the continuation of last half-season's power surge?

Ben Clemens

1:54

I think it depends on what you mean by surge

One thing I feel good about, despite what both Carroll and the team have been saying, is that something slowed him down and made him produce meaningfully less power late in '23 and early in '24

1:55

Injury? fatigue? Given that team and player aren't giving anything away, I can't really speculate. But I think that Carroll's raw power is real, and I buy early '23/late '24 more than the gap in the middle where he got very slap-hitter-y

wheelhouse

1:55

is there gonna be an odd man out in KC's infield? maybe i'm wrong but it seems like a really odd use of resources to trade singer for india and then shuffle india so far down the defensive spectrum that he's in LF/DH territory where his bat isn't exceptional. massey or garcia on the trade block?

Ben Clemens

1:55

I mean.... have you seen the other players KC is considering using at LF/DH?

1:56

Royals LF's had a 75 wRC+ last year

DH's were at 77, and that's including 200 PA of Salvy and Vinnie P playing DH

1:57

His bat is not exceptional compared to all DH's and LF's. But compared to Kansas City's other options? It's a big improvement

diadem

1:57

How concerned are you about Steer's injury?

Ben Clemens

1:58

mmmm.... I want to see some results before I change my evaluation

I didn't think Steer looked bothered by injury in '24

But I hardly watched every game

1:59

shoulder injuries are always scary. but until I see some evidence that it's bothering him, I'm willing to give it the benefit of the doubt

Now that we have swing speed data from the second half of 2023, I can say things like "Steer's swing speed, rate of fast swings, and barrel rate didn't budge in 2024, so injury probably didn't slow his bat"

Kinda cool to be able to do that

comish4lif

2:00

Is there anywhere here at FG that projects playing time by percentage? For example, for the Rockies, what is the % breakdown for someone like Hunter Goodman at C/1B/OF/DH?