JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 3/3/24

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 3/3/24

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Ben Clemens

2:00

On our depth chart pages: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=19

You can see the playing time at each position and then do the math yourself

Jim

2:00

Over/under .500 record for the A's in 2025?

Ben Clemens

2:01

I mean, I'll take the under. Vegas has them around 72, so

That said, I had the over last year, and that was a cakewalk

it was like... 58? something wild

2:02

I do like the A's quite a bit relative to that line, still, as does our model

But I'd have it in the 75-80 range, basically

Eli

2:02

Given the value of marginal wins to the Yankees, why are they not getting a real third baseman?

Ben Clemens

2:02

I'm not sure, to be honest. I think that their commitment to a strict budget is a bit stronger than I expected, basically

2:03

But I agree, it does feel a little weird to have a team that looks one hitter short

2:03

Campbell or Holliday?

Ben Clemens

2:03

I'm on Campbell. I can't shake the "I don't see how this will work" vibes with Holliday

2:04

I'm wrong all the time on things like this, obviously. The consensus of evaluators and models tends to be pretty good, much better than my intuition

But look, I've been lower than consensus on Holliday for quite a while, and taking flak for it right up until people asked me how I could have guessed it

2:05

so I'll just say, eh, something about his game feels off to me, even though I can't put my finger on it. Gimme Campbell, whose game is more of a mystery to me

Insert Witty Name Here

2:05

I’ve been coming to your chats since however long you’ve been here but I’ve never actually seen what you look like. I imagine you looking like a typical tech bro. How far off am I?

Ben Clemens

2:05

I mean, you're not completely wrong, although I wear a FanGraphs hoodie instead of some startup you've never heard of

2:06

Beard, gray hair I don't bother to dye, etc. SF does have a style

Ralph

2:06

Do you sense a Volpe breakout coming? The bat speed gains look real

Ben Clemens

2:06

Yeah but similarly, I'm always seeing a Volpe breakout

I've predicted 3 of the last 0 Volpe breakouts

2:07

I think that his style of defense plus bat control tends to play, and that the chances of a big Jose Ramirez style power spike are generally underestimated for guys like him, so I'm a buyer

but like.... more often than not, players don't become Jose Ramirez

Holliday

2:07

Is having Holliday on my fantasy roster in 2025 a year or two too soon? (In contrast, ARod outplayed Holliday in the MLB at a younger age.)

Ben Clemens

2:07

For all my pessimism on Holliday, I'm not saying he can't work

2:08

all these views are just probabilistic

I'm more of a fantasy football player than baseball player b/c it just feels too close to my actual day job, but in fantasy sports in general, I think that having a good amount of youth and upside on your roster generally pays off

so like, even if the expectation is low, the tails look good. I'm not saying break the bank, but generally speaking, betting on hype works out better than it has any business doing

2:08

Does the MLB have the guts to play a preseason series in the Taipei Dome? The WBC qualies were amazing, especially compared to the bland Spring Training feel of the Tucson bracket

Ben Clemens

2:09

No way is my guess

I don't have any inside info on that, but Taiwan is not a global sports destination, and uh, no points for guessing why

Insert Witty Name Here

2:09

revisiting a trade from 2019 - Curtis Mead for Christopher Sanchez. How do you feel about that 6 years later now that we see them in the bigs?

Ben Clemens

2:09

Gotta love when trades work out for everyone is my view

I think both teams are probably quite happy with what went down

Drey Jameson

2:10

Drey is looking pretty nice so far, getting up over 100 mph with his 4S. He's even showing much more feel for his Slider than you'd expect from somebody coming back from TJ; do you think the DBacks try to run him out as a MIRP, or is he strictly SIRP for now?

Ben Clemens

2:10

I think they'll go SIRP, maybe with some longer and less frequent outings in the second half

Given their enviable rotation depth, I think they'll take the long view, and I concur with that plan

Kevin

2:11

People seem to be very excited about Jordan Westburg, but I see some plate discipline issues. What are your thoughts on him?

Ben Clemens

2:12

Oh, I'm very in. I also don't think it's plate discipline, exactly. He seems like he knows what he's doing at the plate and is just aggressive. He has some swing-and-miss, though

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