JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 3/3/24

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 3/3/24

Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page

Ben Clemens

2:12

I think that will probably always be in his game. His swing is very aggressive

2:13

But I think that his style of aggression is one that often plays well

Bosoxforlife

2:14

Buehler looked good in the post-season last year and yesterday he was impressive. Do you think he can be the pitcher he was and if he is do the Red Sox win the AL East?

Ben Clemens

2:14

I thought Buehler was a great risk by the Sox

can he be the pitcher he was? for sure. And I think that it's more likely than the contract he signed would imply

2:15

One of the better signings of the offseason imo, particularly in the 'cheap but good upside' bracket

like, the best signing, for me, was Soto. it's good to lock up a probable hall of famer for a decade. But that's not really what we're talking about here

Henry Dodger

2:15

Quintana just signing with the Brewers reminds me that Blackburn and Canning are likely starting the season in the NYM rotation. Even with Manaea likely back early and Sproat seemingly close to the bigs, this is not optimal, is it?

Ben Clemens

2:16

Yeah I just wrote about this: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-mets-need-more-pitchers-already/

I mean, it's not great. I think that the team is set up to handle it if they don't have any other injuries. But if I were them, I'd be trying to grab one more pitcher as a stopgap

Jim

2:16

I've read that Jacob Wilson added muscle this off-season. But I never know what's reality or just "best shape of his life" garbage. Is there any sign he's developed more power/ability to drive the ball?

Ben Clemens

2:18

Not really much way to see so far. He has 14 tracked batted balls in spring training

also, spring training is always weird

but it's certainly something I'll be keeping an eye on. He's an intriguing player

The A's have historically been very into these better-game-than-raw-power guys

2:19

Esteury Ruiz was the apple of their eye after he had his wild slug-without-pop season in the minors

That gives me pause with Wilson, but I really WANT to believe he can have an impact. My models all love him

Guest

2:19

thoughts on ivan herrera? his 127 wRC+ for a 24 y/o catcher (with statcast that backs it up) was impressive

Ben Clemens

2:20

Yeah, I think that the Cards' general disfunction around the catcher position obscured what a good season he had. I know he needs some work behind the plate but I think that they'll give that to him this year, particularly with Contreras moving. The Cards have had a lot of 'next great catching prospect's over the years... maybe Herrera is the one to hit

2:21

no offense, but Pedro Pages definitely isn't it, no matter how much the team likes his defense

Jordan Lawlar

2:21

To the "best shape" cliches, Lawlar showed up to camp noticeably bulked up; is that necessarily ideal, considering he's already a 60 raw/70 speed kind of guy without the added mass?

Ben Clemens

2:22

I don't have a strong view here, because I'm not a kinesiologist or anything. I think that a smart move is to not buy these stories too much and focus on how the players perform once games start

best shape of their life is just so often uncorrelated to performance

Bosoxforlife

2:22

As I watch a very large, in every way, part of the AL East puzzle is making his first appearance since 2023. As Felix Bautista throws his first pitch, then blows Trayce Thompson away, his presence makes the Orioles pitching look a lot better.

Ben Clemens

2:22

Yeah, huge news for the O's. Their bullpen situation was not great last year, even with them spending money to bring in Kimbrel

2:23

I'm looking forward to hearing Omar's whistle in lots of games this year

Henry Dodger

2:23

Which team is likely to beat their preseason wins projection by the biggest number? I'm guessing the Red Sox. Who would you choose?

Ben Clemens

2:24

Oh, this is a fun one. I think I'll take the Guardians, actually, because our model has them at 78 and that seems surprising to me. But relative to market lines? Maybe the Giants. Below .500 implied, and that gives them a decent amount of upside

Alby

2:25

"No offense, but Pedro Pages definitely isn't it." I see what you did there.

Ben Clemens

2:25

Man, I didn't even mean it

Guest

2:25

"Cards' general disfunction around the catcher position" remains a bit of a funny thing to me. Cause I agree with you re the perception of the Cardinals catchers and their defensive issues (which seems to evoke even more handwringing inside the org than outside of it)

But Cardinals catchers were the 3rd best unit in MLB last year by fWAR (though still in the bottom half by total DEF)

Ben Clemens

2:25

let me put it this way -- the players might be good, but the team behavior around them isn't

2:26

it doesn't have much to do with Contreras and Herrera. Certainly nothing to do with Pages, who's a perfectly acceptable backup

It has to do with the team constantly talking like they hate their catchers, and then doing weird things like giving each of Pages, Herrera, and Contreras equal playing time even though their WAR broke down 0.5/1.9/2.5 at the catcher position

Scouting

2:27

To what extent do the tools affect each other? For example, let’s say there are two players who you know for a fact are identical hitters, except one has 80 speed and the other has 20. If you looked at the surface level, the faster player will have better stats, since he’ll get more infield hits and extra bases. But would you give them the same grades for their hitting?

Ben Clemens

2:27

I can only answer for me, but for me, tools affect each other

2:28

like, game power and hit tool are so correlated

Geraldo Perdomo

2:28

This is probably an odd question, but how do bunts interact with Average Exit velocity? Does a player that frequently bunts look worse by avg EV and LA? Players like Perdomo and McCarthy have always had me wondering...

Ben Clemens

2:28

I can't speak for everyone, but both I and the baseball savant default exclude bunts

There's a little flag for it in the search

Connecting…