JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 3/7/22

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Ben Clemens

2:00

Hey everyone, welcome to the chat.

Let's just dive right in

Sir Nerdlington

2:00

Do you think Oakland and St. Pete could include a rider on public stadium funding that requires the team spend in the top half of payroll each season?

Ben Clemens

2:00

I don't think this would be enforceable, I don't know how the language would work, and I also don't think either team would agree to it.

2:01

Why would you when you can run bottom-dwelling payrolls, still compete consistently for playoff spots, and make googly eyes at Las Vegas and/or Montreal?

Guest

2:01

WELL, at least we can look forward to minor league games! I truly think that some players on the 40 man rosters should be exempted especially with no mlb time. Thoughts?

Ben Clemens

2:01

I mean.... exempted? I'm not 100% sure I understand

It's a lockout!

2:02

It's not 'hey we're choosing not to pay a few highly paid players but we'd like to still have mostly baseball'

They're part of the union, they're in many cases the players the entire fight is about

You don't get to lock out part of the group you're collectively bargaining with and not the rest

I too would prefer baseball to continue uninterrupted but I can't see this happening, and also don't think it should

Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes

2:03

Looking ahead: the consensus is that the league wants to cancel a few weeks of games to lower expenditures while keeping its TV money. This is going to put a lot of (self-imposed) pressure on the owners to make a deal then, before the TV contracts decrease in value. The MLBPA, however, doesn't have that pressure, each marginal day without baseball is just another 1/162. Is MLB risking shooting itself in the foot here? They're handing the players a lot of leverage.

Ben Clemens

2:03

I mostly agree

I do wonder if the owners are less calculating than we think and it's actually just an issue of factions of them disagreeing on what's best

Which leads to Manfred not being able to get consensus around a deal that would actually get done

2:04

But yeah, I think that owners who rely on revenue sharing and TV money to make a profit are going to start feeling afraid when RSN's and national networks start calling

Jacob

2:04

Even if bigger bases lead to an increase in SB attempts, I am of the belief that the automated strike zone will decrease steals because catchers will be focused more on gunning down baserunners so the success rate will go down. Am I off base there?

Ben Clemens

2:04

You are not... even with a bigger base

ABS is definitely not good for steals

Sir Nerdlington

2:04

How do you think the catcher position will evolve with the ABS? I don't like watching Angel Hernandez decide games, but I also don't love finding ways to strip defensive value from a specific position.

Ben Clemens

2:05

I think it's going to tend towards better hitters and guys with cannon arms, but there's still a lot to be said for game management type stuff. I know we can't quantify it (yet) but I think some of that is the guys who are bad at working with pitchers getting bumped out in the minors

Jughead

2:05

With the Mickey mouse pickoff rules in low A ball last year how does one determine whether or not a guy like Joey weimer’s speed is real or not?

Ben Clemens

2:06

I excluded steals from being any inputs in my mid-tier hitters article today because I don't know the answer to this exact question and didn't feel confident that I had the right approach to adjusting for the rules

To some extent you can do some comparisons to league average but that's weird for steals

Long story short: no idea great question though

chilly

2:07

so i read over the weekend reports saying players agreed to ban shifts. was this a bargaining chip of some kind as dont most players hate shifts anyways? always seemed like a front office mandate that never stood a chance to last. time to slightly upgrade lh sluggers in dynasty leagues?

Ben Clemens

2:07

Eh.... the way media outlets picked it up was slightly misleading

The players agreed to give the league more power to unilaterally make rule changes LIKE banning the shift

which is obviously a concession, though not a huge one.... it's much more of a cosmetic thing that the PA can agree to

Gibby

2:08

Which 2nd year Tigers pitcher emerges as the best of the bunch this year? Skubal was a stud last year but Mize was trending up towards the end

Ben Clemens

2:08

I'm a Mize guy, myself

But I am definitely not the best person to answer this question

Mets fan

2:08

Why was there so much animosity from owners towards Cohen about the Scherzer contract? I'm sure the Dodgers would have given him a similar deal. Did other owners resent the Dodgers/Red Sox/Yankees when they were spending money at will?

Ben Clemens

2:08

Yes

Haha they absolutely did!

2:09

It would obviously be better, from a profits for ownership perspective, if every team agreed to spend 90 million a year and bank the rest

So when someone breaks from this unspoken consensus, of course they're mad

14343

2:09

How was skiing?

Ben Clemens

2:09