JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 3/7/22

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 3/7/22

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Ben Clemens

2:09

Saturday was the day we really wanted to get a full day in, and it snowed 10 inches overnight Friday

2:10

We skied Palisades Tahoe and the conditions were just perfect

I'm pretty average at skiing, steep groomers are my go-to, and it was perfect for that, plus there was a lot of snow so the bowls were great too

Dan

2:10

Great now I'm trying to process financial transactions and I'm picturing people making googley eyes at eachother.

Ben Clemens

2:10

You're welcome

Guest

2:10

As a fellow bay area resident, is it just me or is the Jack London Gondola absolutely ridiculous? I’m kinda shocked this is being entertained

Ben Clemens

2:11

I don't want to completely rule it out but every time I read about it I get confused about how this would work as a way to transport people from place to place in a reasonable amount of time

Which is usually the point of building new transportation?

Shout out to Original Pattern Brewing, where I went for several beers last time I was in Jack London Square area

Guest

2:11

HI ben! I am astonished by how much our interests overlap. I am a cardinals fan Econ major who plays a lot of souls games. Jon Jay! $TNX! Margit!

Ben Clemens

2:12

I was always a little down on Jay relative to Cards fans, I'm sorry to say

Though I do appreciate his large butt and willingness to aim it at a pitch and get on base

Sir Nerdlington

2:12

Been watching a lot of D1 baseball of late. It's a lot of fun, but the fundamentals can be pretty rough. With Rapsodo, Edger, HitTrax, etc. gaining hold have we over-corrected on maximizing the body movements at the expense of knowing game situations?

Ben Clemens

2:12

It's possible, but I would like to advance an alternate explanation: D1 baseball has never been super clean

And that's kind of what's great about it

2:13

I grew up going to Tennessee games b/c my dad worked about 5 minutes away and I mostly remember the games for the wacky fun stuff, not for super crisp fundamentals

Guest

2:13

What's your ideal playoff format?

Ben Clemens

2:13

KBO playoffs for each league

six teams qualify but division winners have to play fewer series

2:14

The ghost win thing is fine too, similar idea, I'd just go further

Quincy

2:14

I would love to see all the hall of famers turn their back on manfred when he starts to speak in Cooperstown

Ben Clemens

2:14

I don't think that htey should feel an obligation to, but it would definitely be a spectacle

Jacob

2:14

Do you think the Padres are being slept on this year? They still have bonafide studs in Machado and Tatis, their staff should be good with Musgrove, Snell, etc...I think they may thrive this year without as much attention to start the year

Ben Clemens

2:15

I don't think so... we have them as the second-best team in the West and close to LA, and Dan's ZiPS odds have th em around 90 wins

I dunno how the larger consensus looks, but from a numbers perspective, I think they look pretty good just like last year

stupid question asker

2:16

In a semi deep dynasty league, where my team is pretty balanced and I'm just looking for the most likely upside play.... Eric Lauer or Abraham Toro? I know, I know.... pretty small fish in the larger sea.

Ben Clemens

2:16

Toro! I'm just a sucker for Toro, always trying to overpay for him

mike tyson: designated hitter

2:17

Wouldn't owners view ghost wins as lost revenue?

Ben Clemens

2:17

I mean.... I guess?

They view everything as lost revenue

It's more playoff games than we have currently, and I don't think a four-game series would sell particularly different than a 5-game series

pretty narrow

Chris

2:17

Could the players and owners agree on adjusting the tax rates downwards and keeping the CBT at the owners preferred number? Wouldn't that help the players in future negotiations and couldn't they make the numbers match?

Ben Clemens

2:17

I mean.... if I were the players, I wouldn't take that bargain

2:18

That said, I think there's not much point in trying to goof around with the CBT until the owners start to sweat a little. The group of owners voting against the CBT that wasn't particularly close to the players' ask says to me that there's not going to be a bargain until someone caves

2:19

I'm not sure which side it will be, but... the amount of resistance to 220 million as a CBT number means that I don't think the owners are willing to commit another penny there

Eman

2:20

Why don't the players include "increased asset value of the teams" as part of their negotiation? You see club prices rise from hundreds of millions to billions... why aren't the players getting a piece? Also, why wouldn't the league offer all the players a minimum salary of say $1.5 million with everything else going in the clubs favor, to turn the union against each other?

Ben Clemens

2:20

I think that they might behind closed doors, and I'm not sure why they haven't made it more of a public talking point, but I think it's implied in many of their things

2:21

And as to your higher minimum salary point, there's no way the owners would ever propose that because it would make low-spending teams pay more

You think Bob Nutting is going to agree to roughly double his payroll?

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