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Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 3/7/22

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Ben Clemens

2:21

Since he's paying a huge chunk of that team the minimum?

Never happening

2:22

I would like to see a higher minimum salary and a flatter distribution of salaries overall, which I think would be really good for competition, I just don't think that owners actually want that

Mitch

2:22

How about Jeff McNeil as a fit for the cardinals? That lineup could definitely use another lefty bat and both he and Edman can play some OF if needed

Ben Clemens

2:22

I don't really see it, because he's just an awkward fit for them defensively given how the team is constructed

2:23

I'd rather just have a Nootbaar/Yepez platoon at DH than trade prospects for McNeil and try to get that production out of him

2:23

With the model you used for the Mid-Tier Hitting Prospects article, I'm curious what you've found some of the needle moving stats to be? For example is K% more important than BB%? Does ISO carry a higher amount of predictive value than most other stats?

Ben Clemens

2:23

So, I'll just speak about the one I gave the highest weight to, which is a binary logistic regression

2:24

I ran it on a different data set for every level of the minors

And broadly speaking: the lower level you are, the more important strikeout rate is

The higher level you are, the more important power is

Finally: age at lower levels is more important than age at higher levels, which totally makes sense to me

Guest

2:24

Ben do you have a favorite part of SF for wings? I am collecting recs for a comprehensive list

Ben Clemens

2:24

I haven't eaten a ton of wings since moving out here, but Square Pie Guys has surprisingly good wings

hombre

2:25

Hi Ben, how are you doing today?

Ben Clemens

2:26

I'm doing very well! Sore from a weekend of skiing, but well-rested and I'm happy to have gotten my mid-tier prospects article out the door

Pkpkpkpk

2:26

If you had to fill out a five player all time mvp ballot for the entire history of baseball, defined here as the five players who have contributed the most value to baseball as a sport, players only, who do you choose? Do you go straight to the Barry Bonds Roger Clemens types or more towards Jackie Robinson types despite lower actual production?

Ben Clemens

2:26

Jackie Robinson types

2:27

Jackie, Babe, and Curt Flood are all slam dunks for me, for example

I could see removing Flood of those three

Because the way he changed the game was different than the other two

But acting like Jackie Robinson isn't one of the most important players in baseball history strikes me as willfully ignorant

Appa Yip Yip

2:27

Important to remember that many owners inherited their wealth they are not all conniving brain geniuses playing 5d chess some of them are dumb failsons who are too rich to ever actually lose anything

Ben Clemens

2:28

And some owners like spending money on players and winning playoff games

One thing that gets lost in the lockout negotiations is that ownership is a broad spectrum. They tend to negotiate like the lowest common denominator b/c that's how consensus works when you need 2/3

The most annoying voices get representation

Dan

2:28

Is that because most MLB relavant players in low lever are young enough to still be growing into power when they are in the lower minors?

Ben Clemens

2:29

It's kinda that... I think more importantly, if you're striking out a lot at low levels, you're just not going to be plyaable in the majors

Hitting the ball is so important

Power can be gained more than ability to not stirke out 30% of the time

copecru

2:30

will Alberto Rodriguez make your mid-tier list in 23?

Ben Clemens

2:30

It certainly wouldn't shock me

I didn't put any players who hadn't played above rookie ball before 2021 on the list because I'm just not confident enough in my methods for them

Guest

2:31

what did curt flood do?

Ben Clemens

2:32

Led to the downfall of the reserve clause when he sued the League after refusing to report after being traded

hombre

2:32

Specific question, but among SPs, where do you put Pablo Lopez? I think with his already apparent success + age and room for further improvement, he’s currently top 25-27 with chance to be top 15

Ben Clemens

2:32

i LOVE pablo

Kevin and I put him on our top 50 trade value list and got some flak for it

I'd still hvae him there, which is about where you say

Jeff

2:33

Anybody else think that after the negotiations are over that Manfred is replaced? Depending on how long the deal is I guess. I just feel like the ONLY reason he was put there were for this CBA and his experience regarding labor

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