JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 4/13/26

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Ben Clemens

2:34

I'm really fascinated by the Reds' bullpen. I talked with Ken Broo (hey Ken, if you're reading this) about Ashcraft this weekend, and I'm really into Santillan and even Connor Phillips as well. I think that they should probably bring Mey up, but also, I think this bullpen is really good and that as they figure out roles, they could get even better

JRod

2:35

Is it fair to say that my being a slow starter (and that the slow starts aren't much to worry about long-term) is something with real signal in the noise at this point in my career?

Ben Clemens

2:35

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fun-with-meaningless-splits-half-edition/

Davy Andrews just wrote about this!

Mickey

2:36

If David Stearns misses the playoffs two straight years with payrolls well above $300 million, would it be reasonable to replace him? I'm not saying it would happen--just would it be reasonable?

Ben Clemens

2:36

I do not think it would be, but look, I'm not Steve Cohen

I don't think it'd be wise to bring in someone with multi-year planning as a reason and then have a really short fuse to change it up

War2D2

2:36

Ben! So kind of a weird question that probably fits better in an offseason chat: I know there’s no chance this happens, but my preferred realignment when expansion eventually happens would be to kill interleague and go back to NL and AL only playing against each other at the All-Star game and World Series. What would you put the chances of that at? Like 5%? 2%? My argument is that it makes the All-Star game more special, it makes the World Series seem like a bigger deal, and it allows more inter-division series so that we get more jockeying for position late in the season. Four divisions in each league, no wildcards, let chaos reign. That’s my pitch.

Ben Clemens

2:36

I'd put the odds at 0%, honestly. Interleague play is great for getting Shohei Ohtani into more stadiums

TOOTBLAN

2:37

I'm always rooting for greatness (provided greatness isn't currently playing my team), and it was sad last year to see what Yordan was doing. The start he's had ... I like his chances at being a Top 5 MLB Hitter again, and that's great for the game!

Ben Clemens

2:37

100%. I've always had a soft spot for Yordan because he was one of my first big analyst calls (Yordan good, a hotter take in 2019 than 2026)

and also, have thought that he's going to be one of the best hitters of all time when all is said and done

2:38

I'm super into it, in any case. I think he's really fun to analyze, too

J Hench

2:38

I get that as fans, we shouldn’t overreact to small samples. But if you are a team watching a guy take atrocious at bats day after day, when is too soon to react? I’m thinking the Reds with Noelvis, or the Cubs with Busch - you can’t just hope they start hitting because it’s early still, right?

Ben Clemens

2:38

the good news is that if your'e teh team, you're allowed to talk to them

2:39

but I guess I'd say that process statistics -- and 'take atrocious at-bats' is going to show up in process stats, that's what you're talking about basically

2:40

those are already somewhat meaningful. Like, I'm quite certain that Trevor Story's 46.1% chase rate, miles higher than any previous year, means he's performing poorly and could use a reset

2:41

and Vinnie Pasquantino, who has a similar wRC+, has lost 3 mph of bat speed: also bad!

2:42

but Josh Naylor's cold start? I bet he's just fine

HappyFunBall

2:42

CIN just sent Marte down. That's a reaction.

Of course they brought up Reece Hinds who's basically the same guy?

Ben Clemens

2:42

wow, now that is a reaction

I imagine he has a somewhat shorter leash in that org due to, shall we say, past indiscrtions

2:43

indiscretions*

but yeah

Doug

2:43

How soon can Giolito's agent start giving daily calls to SD and Preller? Would calling right after Pivetta was taken out be seen as discourteous?

War2D2

2:43

Speaking of good announcing, Orsillo’s call of Sheets’ walkoff the other day was a masterclass. And I had no dog in that fight, I was just watching because, next to the Phillies’ when Kruk is on a roll, the Padres’ booth is the most fun for an unbiased observer.

Ben Clemens

2:43

oh boy, you should've seen the walk off grand slam the night before

dylan

2:44

thank you for 5 things. always love it, but Friday's brought extra smiles

Ben Clemens

2:44

why thank you. I'm going to be writing Five Things somewhat less frequently this year because I just don't have the bandwidth to do it plus all the other stuff I do, but I really love the column and I'm glad peopel still like it

2:45

it's probably going to end up somewhere between every other week and two on one off, whereas last year it was closer to every week with the occasional gap

2:46

Those stories just take a lot longer to put together than a single article, so can't keep cranking out all the FG content you've come to expect and love while also spending that much time hunting for silly stuff and then gifing it

Guest

2:46

I've been keeping a list of little, but specific aesthetically pleasing things so far this season. Some of them include Murakami's load and explode, Burns's follow through, Misiorowski's K spin. I have a feeling you have a couple similar? Would love to hear them if so. Thanks for always giving me new things to look out for as I watch. Felt like we were all in a little inside club during the infield pop up(s) last night for Bibee

Ben Clemens

2:46

oh man, the Bibee infield pop ups last night were so delightful

my friend sent me a video of them and was like 'do you think he read your column?'

2:47

like, no way. but what a delight

Murakami is fun to watch. I love drop and drive pitchers, and Yamamoto has been a must-watch for me but especially after last season's WS heroics. You should be watching every Mason Miller appearance right now

2:48

Oh, I like watching Tyler Rogers quite a bit

this one isn't team specific but I love emphatic challenges that are wrong

SPArn

2:49

And one other thing, since I just read your Mason Miller article. I was trying to explain his dominance to friends at a wedding Saturday, and off handily mentioned that he had a negative FIP. They asked me to explain it in layman's terms, and I struggled to do it so sufficiently, that they were like "well that sounds fake." I was like "It is, but you don't get it!" Can you help out with the layman terms, besides "Miller has broken containment."?

Ben Clemens

2:51

Hmmmmm. I guess I'd say that it's basically a linear guess: how many strikeouts, walks, and home runs do you give up, and what does that mean for how many runs you allow

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