JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 4/13/26

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 4/13/26

powered by

Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page

Ben Clemens

2:51

that works pretty well when you add one strikeout, or whatnot

but miller just doesn't have an amount of strikeouts that anyone should have. and since it's a linear approximation, we don't stop at zero

i dunno, it's very hard to comprehend, no argument

War2D2

2:52

Speaking of the Padres, how broken is Tatis right now, and how likely is it that this is just what he is now? He looked completely lost the other night.

Ben Clemens

2:53

I mean.... I'm going to say that he's probably okay. He posted a 133 wRC+ over 1100 PA over the last two years, so I'll give his 73 PA of 85 wRC+ a grace period.

not that xwOBA is the end all be all, but his xwOBA is basically the same as last year's

2:54

max exit velo already higher in 2026 than in 2025. super high hard-hit and barrel rates. I think he'll survive, and is just slumping

Sperts Valuez

2:54

The Mariners seem well set up to move Logan Gilbert next offseason? What does he idk “command” or whatever in a trade?

Ben Clemens

2:54

a lot. I had him top 50 trade value last year and I think he'll be in the mix this year too. less remaining team control, but new intriguing strikeout upside

Farhandrew Zaidman

2:55

Fernando Tatis pre-suspension - 160 OPS+. Post-suspension - 119 OPS+. It's impossible to ignore.

Ben Clemens

2:55

well, sure. but that is a very good hitter, the post-suspension guy

do you think that he's a true-talent 85 wRC+ guy now? is 2026 just who he is? I still think not

Gunnar

2:55

Am I the AL MVP? Where are the O's without me?

Ben Clemens

2:55

I mean, so far, surely

2:56

what a start to the season

and I mean, probably out of the playoff hunt. not having your best player, who is one of the best players in baseball, is never good

Taj Bradley

2:56

Am I for real?

Ben Clemens

2:56

I sure hope so, because I've thought you would be for years now

tongue

1

love

1

B. Hyde

2:56

O's, like much of the AL, are treading water so far. Any signs of life or progress for their cadre of youngsters who haven't yet lived up to the hype: Adley, Cowser, Mayo, Basallo, etc?

party

1

Ben Clemens

2:57

Adley is 28, which kinda shocked me

3:00

Having looked through quickly, I don't know about Cowser or Mayo, Basallo is off to a slow start but I'm okay because I feel like a lot of his tools (bat speed) still look good

and I mean, Adley has a 150 wrC+

and is on the IL

Farhandrew Zaidman

3:01

Per Adam Ottavino's show today, DeGrom is tipping his slider. Something to monitor I think.

sorry DeGrom is tipping the change up, not the slider.

Ben Clemens

3:02

I wonder if that's because he almost never needed a changeup

I always thought the whole 'deGrom has the five best pitches in baseball and he only uses two' thing was very funny

3:03

maybe he's just not good at hiding it becuase he spent a decade perfecting his slider and never needed a change

War2D2

3:03

Getting strong Jonah Heim vibes from Adley, not gonna lie.

Ben Clemens

3:03

boy, I hope not but it's been a WHILE and he's been hurt a lot

danny

3:03

from a read of relative team quality, if a team wins by like 5 runs in extras, should that be interpreted as close to a 5 run in a 9 inning game, close to a tie, or somewhere in the middle?

Ben Clemens

3:04

somewhere in the middle, I think, but I'd need to do more digging to give you a more concrete answer like that

Ghost of Wade Boggs

3:04

In regards to Mason Miller having a negative FIP: The reason FIP looks like an ERA style number is due to a chocolate candy mathematical coating we put over the top of it to deliberately make it look like an ERA style number. A better way to comprehend it is by Miller's FIP- number, which is still a ridiculous -45, but it implies that his performance is 145% better than the average pitcher.

Ben Clemens

3:04

very good way of putting this

3:06

sorry guys, had a little hiccup because the site is getting bumpy, a few timeout errors

looks like we're back now?

Sal"s Mom

3:06

How worried should I be about Andrew Abbot?

Ben Clemens

3:07

Hm. I'm guessing not too much, but that kind of depends on what your expectations for him were coming into the year. I just looked at ZiPS, for example, and its 2026 projection for FIP has moved from 3.85 to 3.90

he's been getting babip'ed/lob'ed to death so far, and while the low strikeout rate worries me, that has always bene the case with him

3:08

basically don't buy the ERA. But do wonder whether a guy with Abbott's combo of not a ton of K's/not too many grounders(changing this year!)/middling control is ever going to be a true ace

Connecting…

Register

Message History

On Off

On Off

On Off

On Off

Your current subscriptions

None

Register now to continue managing your subscriptions

E-mail Address	Chat Owner	Status	Remove

Enter your email address to be notified when Ben Clemens hosts a chat