JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 4/24/23

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Ben Clemens

2:01

Hey everybody, welcome to the chat.

2:02

I went with a bold claim article today, so if you want to talk about how Pete Alonso is one of the best pure home run hitters of all time, I'm all ears. I'm also working on something about Wander Franco for tomorrow.

Anyway, let's get started

RTJ

2:02

It's April but, what are you thinking right now if you're in the Cardinals front office?

Ben Clemens

2:02

Why oh why did we aggressively promote Jordan Walker? Why oh why did we forget that major league teams are comprised of both hitters and pitchers?

RTJ

2:02

We're all ready to agree that Max Muncy is back, correct?

Ben Clemens

2:02

Oh yeah

Matt Damon

2:02

MATT. DAMON.

Ben Clemens

2:02

It's early!

Zach

2:02

Ben, how much are you buying into Jarred Kelenic right now? Obviously the results are tremendous but the process has also looked so much better ever since spring training. He (probably?) won't be one of the 20 best players in baseball this year but is it reasonable to think that the All-Star upside is back on the table?

Ben Clemens

2:03

For sure. I never really agreed with taking all star upside off the table in the first place. As I noted in my article that's coming out tomorrow, Jose Ramirez had a 78 wRC+ in his first two seasons (really two-plus, he had an 11-PA cup of coffee also)

Sometimes young players are bad, and then later good

2:04

I'm most interested in Kelenic's approach, and there are really good signs there, so I'm in

2:05

Also, him continuing to hit in the minors was a good sign

Who's Fabio

2:05

Hi Ben - my favourite thing about last week was the possum 'leave behinds' in the A's stadium that caused a broadcast team to move. How did this not make your list?

Ben Clemens

2:05

I haven't really done many meta-baseball things, announcer-y stuff basically

Also that one is kinda hard to gif, you really want to hear the announcers telling stories about it, whicih the Mets booth did especially well

TacomaJay

2:06

when will Jordan Walker get a shot towards the top or middle of Cardinals lineup?

Ben Clemens

2:06

When he's hitting better than the guys who are ahead of him

2:07

that seems kinda self-evident, tbh. He has the seventh-best wRC+ among team regulars, and 8th is Nolan Arenado

KBH

2:07

Miguel Vargas still a hold?

Ben Clemens

2:07

Yeah, although I'm getting a little worried about this year's power production, so I guess I care a bit more about him in dynasty type formats

Hand injuries are notoriously tough on power output

Trey

2:08

Looking like Acuña is going to get to 40 SB in his sleep. How likely is he to start slugging enough to be on 40/40 watch?

Ben Clemens

2:08

I think it's likely. The raw power looks to me like it's all the way back to pre-injury levels

EbenezerBatflip

2:08

Hey Ben, Red Sox fan here who is cautiously starting to feel optimistic about this team. I don't think we'll win it all, but its a fun team to watch. What do you think so far of Yoshida, Casas and Duran? Will any of them have a big break out this season?

Ben Clemens

2:08

Count me in on Duran and Yoshida, but I don't have a great feeling about Casas

2:09

It's still early, it's just a feeling, all the things I said about Kelenic apply here too

But he's looked a little bit lost in the PA's I've seen this year, I think it might behoove them to let him get his head straight in Triple-A

Ben

2:09

How many baseball writers will now refuse to vote for Scherzer for the Hall of Fame since, unlike Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, or Carlos Beltran, he was "suspended for cheating"?

Ben Clemens

2:09

Zero, c'mon

Jay

2:10

The Cardinals rank 4th in wRC+, 6th in xFIP, 8th in DRS and... 22nd in wins. Are they good? Is something broken? Typical April weirdness?

Ben Clemens

2:10

Have you seen their pitching staff?

Planet Dust

2:10

Hi Ben, an MLB.com article about Smyly's curve got me thinking about which pitches see the most divergence between their modeling (e.g. stuff+) values and their effectiveness in terms of how batters actually perform against them. Obviously there are reasons why the two might diverge but curious about the largest gaps.

brash

2:10

I know that slow curves and cutters tend not to excel in stuff models, but what is the advantage of throwing these pitch types?

Ben Clemens

2:13

These are similar questions, so I thought I'd answer them together. I'm not sure what stuff models are doing with slow curves, but I think it's fairly clear that they are lumped in with regular curves somehow. Since velocity is one of the key determinants of offspeed performance, well....

2:14

That said, I think that a lot of the reason behind slow curves fitting into people's arsenals is that they add a good amount of deception and range to a pitcher's mix. It's just another hard thing to keep track of, particularly when it's less Smyly style and more, say Yu Darvish style

2:15

Smyly is notoriously difficult for pitch characteristic models to pick up, he throws the two pitches they're worst at classifying

Cutters are another story; one reason that pitchers use them is that they have neutral platoon splits so it gives them additional options in tough situations

2:16

Another is that they just work? As it turns out, cutters are being thrown at the highest rate in the pitch tracking era this year. I don't think that's because teams are dummies and don't understand Stuff+; I think it's b/c pitch-level models aren't capturing everything

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