JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 4/24/23

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 4/24/23

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JG6

2:17

What do you make of Trout’s contact rate dip in recent years? Is he going to be around a 30% K rate the rest of his career?

Ben Clemens

2:17

Maybe not 30% because his eye is so good, but yeah, he's a true-outcomes guy these days

bosoxforlife

2:17

So many questions this week but let me start with will the A's win less than 40 games?

Ben Clemens

2:17

That is very few games!

I think they'll cruise above 40 but struggle to hit 50

ewwwwwww

Mike M

2:17

What's your take on the NL West? ARI and LAD tied for first but only one game over 500, and only LAD has a positive run differential. Is this is down year for the division? Too early to say anything confidently?

Ben Clemens

2:17

Too early to say anything. And probably too early to write off the Dodgers, like so many people did; they have been playing the b squad so far and making it work

Trey

2:18

Why does Kyle Tucker bat 5th for the Astros?

Ben Clemens

2:18

The best reason I can come up with is this: Dusty Baker likes to stagger his hitters. He always has. He wants Bregman to bat second and Alvarez to bat third. That means he needs a righty fourth and Tucker fifth

2:19

Also if you think that's ridiculous, the slot he's batted in second-most in his career is sixth

and third-most is seventh

Morbo

2:20

I know there has been some talk about Tommy Edman hitting right handed against righties. But, Dylan Carlson should probably consider not batting left handed as well. 140wRC+ as a righty vs 89 wRC+ as a lefty on about 1k plate appearances as a lefty. Carlson's splits are significantly worse than Edman's

Ben Clemens

2:20

Honestly, color me skeptical

It's all down to BABIP, and his righty babip is ludicrous, .392. He runs the same walk rate, same strikeout rate, similar iso

2:21

Edman's splits come down to a complete lack of power from the left side

I think they are different issues, basically

Portland vs Nashville

2:21

Putting a team in Tennessee would cut into the Reds already crowded TV rights. Isn’t it better to shrink the tv markets on the coasts vs the center of the country where the market sizes are smaller. A team in Charlotte or Portland would increase league parity more than Nashville. Is my line of thinking off base?

Ben Clemens

2:21

As Michael Baumann pointed out in an award winning article, the south is the most underserved baseball market by a huge margin

2:22

Also, Tennessee is Braves territory

I grew up there, and let me tell you, there were not a lot of people like 'Oh I follow the Reds religiously'

laughing

1

Nokahoma

2:22

What is the deal with Ozuna, is it a BAD month or is he sorta done?

Ben Clemens

2:22

Month? Mine at a month

2:23

Since the start of 2021, he's hitting .212/.272/.384, 79 wRC+

Toast

MoKo

2:23

Hello Ben, been enjoying your “5 things” weekly, thanks! The Dodgers although still very talented, seem to be more vulnerable than previous years, specially middle infield with no help in the farm this year and unlucky with Lux and so far Rojas, do you expect them to fill this with some dfa and Mookie or actually trading relative value for an upgrade at the deadline?

cool

1

Ben Clemens

2:23

I think they're gonna trade for value upgrades

The Mookie experiment is wild

2:24

I can't believe it's mostly working, but it cannot be a good long-term plan

Guest

2:24

Is the Braves bullpen in trouble, or is Yordan Alvarez just terrifying? Follow up question, is Clutch a "real" stat or a "just for fun" stat? Because Yordan Avarez makes it feel real.

Ben Clemens

2:24

No, Yordan is just terrifying

Now that Soto had a slow finish to '22 and a slow start to '23, I think Alvarez is unquestionably the best lefty on the planet

2:25

Hitter -- Shohei is a more valuable player

Shoeless Joe

2:25

take one A's hitter for Fantasy purposes the rest of the year at any position, who are you taking?

Ben Clemens

2:25

Esteury Ruiz by a mile

DBRuns

2:25

Ben, I didn't know you are ex-Citadel! I was in GQS for five years. Left in 2021. Would read Fangraphs whenever sitting in front of my lunch tray, ha.

Ben Clemens

2:25

Reading baseball articles at work is a classic part of the finance lifestyle, don't let anyone tell you otherwise

bruins

2:25

Are we at the point where we can believe that Bellinger has turned the corner? K% at 14% and swinging strike rate is 8.2% Not chasing as much and swinging less overall.

Ben Clemens

2:26

Yeah, I'm not ready to believe the power will return sustainably, but I'm willing to believe that he's getting back to his lower-strikeout form, which is a huge deal

Twins Wins

2:26

Can Twins hitters get it going soon enough to take advantage of the great pitching?

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