JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 4/27/20

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Ben Clemens

2:15

If he ages more poorly and is like a 3 WAR dude, an above average regular but not a superstar, I think his path is a little more difficult, because his peak would then just be so short.

But basically more years of contending for an MVP will do it for me.

WilponsAreTheWorst

2:15

Do you think Pete Alonso will repeat his rookie performance, regress, or surpass it?

Ben Clemens

2:15

I mean, this is a coward's answer, but regress.

Always bet on regress.

2:16

He did a lot of things right that make me think he could have a shot at repeating it.

He didn't strike out way too much or anything, he didn't show a poor batting eye, nothing like that.

2:17

But he just hit 53 home runs! And was nearly as good, in the majors, as he was in freaking Las Vegas in 2018.

Kim Wexler's T-shirt

2:17

What is the best case yet semi-reasonable scenario for the Royals over the next three years? Most of the pitching prospects hit, they sign a few cheaper veterans who outperform their contracts, the existing major leaguers hold serve, and they compete for the division in Year 3?

Ben Clemens

2:18

That's an aggressive path, but something like this is how a quick rebuild happens.

2:19

I think you'd have to add that Bobby Witt develops more quickly than expected, and comes up as a 21 or 22 year old.

2:20

If that happens, and Singer and Bubic both work out, that's a big head start. Maybe they trade Merrifield for some close-to-the-majors guys who happen to pan out as well; something like the Travis Shaw acquisition for the Brewers, only a few guys, since Merrifield is stlil valuable in trade.

2:21

That's a lot of things going right, and I'd add that they probably need Mondesi to hit at least okay.

But yeah, something like that.

Roast Turkey Stearnes

2:21

Between the Astros and the Dodgers, which team feels more likely to become a dynasty, if they haven't already? I feel like we are several years away from a legitimate challenger for the NL West crown, but the A's could make some noise in the AL West soon, especially if some Astros prospects don't pan out.

Ben Clemens

2:22

I think the Dodgers are already a dynasty, though I think I probably define it differently than you do.

2:23

The last time they lost the NL West, the Iron Curtain hadn't fallen

Or at least, it feels like it.

But yeah, I definitely agree that if I had to pick one team to lose the division first, I'd pick the Astros.

The Dodgers have shown to me that they can do the whole perpetual motion machine thing in a way the Astros haven't.

2:24

The Astros are an innovative team, and they do pitching development stuff.... and also they have a really solid core that they've mostly supplemented by trading prospects for stars. The Dodgers seem to be a lot better at manufacturing good players, and that makes them more sustainable to me.

Jeff

2:25

What's a reasonable return for Francisco Lindor post-COVID19, if there is one? To pick a team out of a hat...say the Cubs for Nico Hoerner, consensus top 100 prospect Brailyn Marquez, and nonconsensus top 100 Brennen Davis? Picked randomly out of a hat

Ben Clemens

2:25

This seems too light to me by a decent amount.

Compare it to the Mookie trade, which people mostly thought was too light of a return for the Red Sox.

2:26

I'd take Verdugo over Hoerner easily, Downs over Marquez. Davis beats out Conner Wong, but not by enough to offset the Verdugo and Downs ones.

2:27

It seems that both teams considered Price essentially a wash at his contract valuation, for whatever reason.

So I don't know, maybe the Cubs would also have to take a contract the Indians don't like or something?

But the problem is, the Cubs aren't willing to add money.

They said over the offseason they couldn't sign a single player without cutting salary at one point.

2:28

And Lindor should make over 20 million next year, so that's also tough.

This also assumes it's only for 2021, which I think is a reasonable assumption at this point.

I think the Cubs are just a tough fit.

2:29

If they are willing to increase their payroll a lot, maybe yeah.

But I'll believe that when I see it.

Jeff

2:29

Will the Cardinals be awarded a draft pick by the MLB post-COVID19, if there is such a thing?

Ben Clemens

2:29

Just for like, general Cardinals-ness?

Jeff

2:30

Yes

Ben Clemens

2:30

Sure, why not. Baseball seems to overly favor them with weird compensatory picks at times.

(Realistically haha no, but they do seem to do better in comp balance than you'd expect given their revenue)

Guest

2:30

How would a shortened season affect WAR calculations? Would replacement-level baseline stay the same, and so the amount of league-wide WAR is just reduced based on the total number of games played? Or is there an additional component that would vary based on any league changes to roster size, gameplay adjustments, league / divisional / schedule realignments, or other factors?

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