JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 4/27/20

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 4/27/20

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Ben Clemens

2:31

So the total amount of WAR we award is formulaic, so it would be pro-rated down based on games played. There are also other things that would matter a little; we have a league adjustment so that would be in there.

Roster size, nah, there's a set amount of WAR and it gets allocated. Roster size shouldn't affect that.

I think that the shorter season and the different leagues are all that would need to change, though there's some chance I'm forgetting something.

Steeve

2:31

How are you today?

Ben Clemens

2:32

I'm doing pretty well! We had some dog issues over the weekend, namely that Ruby is very scared of noises sometimes, which were frustrating.

But that's hardly enough to qualify as a rough weekend in these trying times, and the rest of my life is going pretty well I think.

Had a few family zoom game nights, which was fun, taught my wife hearts, and made some good meals.

2:33

It's always weird to feel okay when the world is messed up but yeah, I think things are going alright

cool

2

Kawasaki Home Run

2:33

If MLB were to restart this summer, do you think that they should use hand sanitizer on the ball after each pitch? If so, where should this be located? On the mound? One of those standalone office dispensers by the catcher? Shouldn't the outfield also be supplied? How would this affect the juiced ball?

Ben Clemens

2:33

Oh you joke, but I think one of the pitching science types has already done a study on this! Though I'm struggling to find this.

2:34

Mainly as a joke basically, but the gist is that if you rub it in, there's no effect on spin.

I think that they'd just go the quarantine route, though. No need to sanitize the ball every time if you test everyone to make sure they aren't sick first.

Matt

2:34

Do you think the Phillies get an extension done with Realmuto?

Ben Clemens

2:34

This is, at this point, only a hunch.

2:35

But I think that there's going to be an adjustment period where players still think of league financial constraints in the before times.

But total payrolls are extremely likely to go down next year.

2:36

Between the revenue shortfall teams are facing this year and the likely attendance problems.

So if you're crunching the numbers on the Phillies' side and before this season you wanted to pay JTR 20 million a season

And you still value his production the same

You might offer him 17/season now

2:37

I never quite figured out an article around this, though I may at some point, but I could see total salaries and total revenue both coming down quite a bit next year. And additionally, many teams have debt burdens, so they're less than treading water at the moment. I don't think that's a big long-term issue, but I do think it will make the contract market slower for stars for a while.

2:38

As a side note, I always include a term in my contract modeling that makes the cost of a win in free agency vary randomly.

Worth doing if you're looking into that kind of thing.

Dom

2:38

Of the different SQL Programs (SQL Server, MySQL, Oracle, MC Access, etc.) which do you find the most beneficial / most used in MLB front offices?

Ben Clemens

2:38

I can't speak to the second one really at all.

2:39

I used MySQL for a bit, and I'm using SQLYog now.

Honestly, a lot of what I'm doing is just downloading a set of data, so I think both are overly powerful for what I want, but I've liked SQLYog more.

It just feels more intuitive to me.

Tom G

2:39

I think I remember in one of your chats you saying you were a board gamer? What are your go-to games? I would definitely watch some Baseball Highlights 2045 on Twitch...

Ben Clemens

2:39

Yes indeed.

2:40

My go-to games of late have been Sushi Go! and Seven Wonders, because you can play both on board game arena, which is awesome.

My wife and I are in the middle of playing through Pandemic Legacy at the moment, which is also fun.

2:41

Meg and I have discussed talking board games on FG in one way or another; seems like readers are, at least occasionally, interested in hearing about them.

If people have suggestions for what they'd like to hear, please let me know, we'd love feedback.

And in the meantime, playing games on Twitch is definitely a thing we're looking into doing. I'm going to stream some OOTP tomorrow at noon ET.

2:42

And Dan, Paul, and I have been streaming the Show once a week recently. I wouldn't mind getting some other baseball sims into it as well.

Jeff

2:42

How many more rings does Theo Epstein need to catch up to Andrew Friedman's historic reputation? Should he put more focus on $/WAR and realize no ones cares about winning really?

Ben Clemens

2:42

So it's interesting... if you asked me which GM I'd rather have, right now, I'd say Friedman.

But I also think that Theo will rightly be considered the more important/successful GM when we talk legacy later on in life.

2:43

Unless the Dodgers go on some insane streak.

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