JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 4/4/22

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Ben Clemens

2:34

Yeah, uh, it's dumb?

He's entitled to say whatever he wants, of course

But I don't think that's how World Series titles work

Peter

2:35

The star seems to have dimmed on Jarred Kelenic a bit. What do you see for him in 2022?

Ben Clemens

2:36

I think he'll be a roughly average regular; not in love with the defense, think he'll improve quite a bit with the bat though

He'll be well served by a corner role, I think he probably will not get on base enough to really excel though

Sleaux

2:36

Do you think the Padres do anything they can to move Hosmer by the end of the midseason trade deadline? I can't see them wanting to stomach the next couple years with how many times they've tried to move him.

Ben Clemens

2:37

I think they'll fail to move him unless the Mets get really desperate for pitching

There's just not much appetite for him across the league

Jeff in Jersey

2:37

What would your take have been on Dom Smith for Paddack, Pagan, and $6m of Hosmer for the next four years? I get that Hosmer's a poison pill Paddack and Pagan have value.

Ben Clemens

2:37

I wouldn't have done it, but I see why the Mets might have

I like Smith quite a bit, though he really is surplus given the strange construction of their roster

Basically I'm pretty low on Paddack

2:38

And if you don't think Paddack is much more than a fifth starter, I don't get the trade at all. Add a guy who will probably be a pain in the clubhouse because he wants to start but is hardly playing, and add money, and actually get WORSE on offense?

All for a fifth starter and a mid-leverage reliever?

No thanks

Peter

2:38

Jay Bruce reasonable comp for Kelenic then?

Ben Clemens

2:39

Younger Jay Bruce, but I like that, yeah

Armadillofury

2:39

Do you think Dalbec can pop 40 HR?

Ben Clemens

2:39

Can? Yes

Will? No

Not this year at least

Juliooooo

2:39

J-Rod over/under 4 WAR rookie season?

Ben Clemens

2:40

I'll take the under, but that's just b/c I'm a loser who hews to closely to expected value

I think that a decent amount of his distribution is over; his range of outcomes is huge

2:41

It's really hard to pinpoint his talent level b/c he just hit .362/.461/.448 in Double-A

And that's the first time he's played above A ball ever

What does that look like? It's a guess

We actually have his Depth Charts projection at 4.1 WAR but ehhhhhh

That gives him a lot of credit for great defense

I wouldn't be surprised if he puts up 5 WAR; I wouldn't be surprised if he puts up 2

Matt (Oceanside)

2:43

I understand that spring stats typically don't mean anything, but do you think the Dodgers are worried that Betts, Muncy, J.Turner, and Bellinger are all hitting very poorly this spring. Or, maybe just worried about Bellinger? Mookie looks pretty rough to me although he did have a late start to ST? What say you?

Ben Clemens

2:43

I think they're worried about Bellinger and Turner

Bellinger b/c uh, have you watched him?

It looks bad!

The stats aren't hugely important, i don't think, but his incessant tinkering and just pure "what the heck am I doing out here?" vibe is bad

2:44

Turner just because he's getting old and was hurt at the end of last year

I'm not really worried about Mookie, like you said he got a late start

A's

2:44

Does Montas get traded before opening day?