JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 4/4/22

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Ben Clemens

2:45

As I said above, I think that Manaea's trade actually lowers the urgency to move Montas because of the money

Jim

2:45

What's next for deGrom? Come back in two months and hope nothing breaks again?

Ben Clemens

2:45

Yeah basically

If it weren't such a tight division race I think this would actually help him?

2:46

I don't think he's ever going to be a 200 inning guy again, sitting out the first two months is preferable to the last two

Appa Yip Yip

2:46

Montas at the deadline after a contender loses an important arm to injury?

Ben Clemens

2:46

Yeah, or even in May

Guest

2:46

At what point do the A’s stop taking pu pu platters for their best players?

Ben Clemens

2:47

I think people are too down on the Manaea return because they are too high on Manaea

A year of an above average starter is not bad, but if you're doing some kind of surplus value calculation type deal, it's not an earth-shattering value

2:48

The guy has a career 3.9 ERA and 4 FIP in one of the best pitcher's parks in the game

His value is in above-average quality with bulk quantity, which is nice, but for only a year of that you're not getting Anthony Volpe or anything

2:49

Absolutely hated the Chapman trade, but I think the issue there was similar; his recent stats have been scary

I liked the Olson return just fine

If you take for granted that the A's are unwilling to pay a dime of money in retention on Manaea, I just don't think they were ever going to get a haul

Adam

2:49

Playoff Odds page has 6 teams at >80% to make the playoffs: LA, Tor, Atl, Hou, NYY, Mil. If you had to pick one of those to flame out and finish below .500, who you got?

Ben Clemens

2:50

The Brewers. It's for two reasons. First, I think playoff odds are weirdly high on their talent level. Dan's doing ZiPS playoff odds for later this week, and I expect them to be meaningfully lower there

Second, it's a lot easier to finish below .500 when you start at winning a crappy division with upper-80's wins

I like the Brewers' rotation a ton

2:51

But goodness gracious is their offense bad for a playoff team

And their solution was to salary dump Jackie Bradley Jr. and get Andrew McCutchen

Like, sure, but I hope there's more to come in season

171

2:51

Can we get an update on your OOTP league?

Ben Clemens

2:51

The Dodgers won the World Series!

They didn't win their division, but they went on a rampage and won it all

Coelho is overjoyed

2:52

The Yankees are fuming

Isaac Paredes was my best player but I just traded him for a 60 FV pitching prospect and a 55FV reliever

2:53

It was a pretty thrilling year, and we expanded the playoffs in keeping with MLB, so next year should be fun too

Dan

2:53

Should the Dodgers worry that Kimbrel has been lousy in spring training, had a bad 2nd half in 2021, wasn’t very good in 2020, wasn’t very good in 2019, and had a lousy 2nd half (and playoffs) in 2018?

Ben Clemens

2:53

Uh, yes

On the other hand, a lot of the way you end up with a good bullpen is accumulate a lot of maybe's

And I like Kimbrel from that standpoit

He was pretty awesome in the first half last year

BettsBellingerCaruso

2:54

Dodgers not addressing the starting rotation means

They think (redacted) is going to play
They're really bullish on Bobby Miller who apparently hit 102 mph
Other

Ben Clemens

2:54

I think it's a mix of all three

It's also a bit of 'hey if 1 and 2 don't happen by July we'll go trade for Montas or something'

2:55

Why not defer your decision if you can?

2:55

Padres say Blake Snell is behind in his ramp-up, and has limited innings for the first few weeks. What do you expect out of him in April, and for the year?

Ben Clemens

2:55

I'm pretty high on Snell's rate stats this year

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