JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 4/6/26

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Ben Clemens

2:22

I t hink this is one of those 'he has five starts to get some velo back, but boy, I wish he'd done it by now' kinds of situations

like, you should feel a little more worried, because the odds have changed. But he's not cooked or anything.

Big Buckston

2:23

Hey Ben, you encouraged me to go to Camden Yards to watch my Twins open the season a few weeks ago when I was feeling gloomy and down about the team, and thank you for doing that! I had a great time and it's a beautiful park, and I even chose to go to the one game MN won!

Ben Clemens

2:23

Amazing, I'm glad to hear it. My dad was at Camden this weekend and loved it

er, last weekend? regardless

Guest

2:24

Bradish's stuff is down a bit, but the velo is there. Any concerns from an overall optimistic outlook, or is this just one really bad start?

Ben Clemens

2:25

Yeah, I feel as good about him as I did before the year. I happen to have watched that start (I bet a lot of people did, it was Konnor Griffin's debut) and eh, it happens. He looked fine

Petey Bienel

2:25

"But yes, you can definitely imagine prospects who aren't ready, but who get pushed for PPI reasons. I don't have an example off the top of my head. Dylan Crews

Ben Clemens

2:25

great one

2:26

just looked back through his gamelogs, this is what I'm talking about

Guest

2:26

Pages - might not finish with a wRC+ of 267...but seems like he's made some swing approach changes. More A+ swings, chasing less, etc. Posed for a "breakout"?

Ben Clemens

2:26

yeah I'm liking the approach. I wrote about how I like his overall plan at the plate last year

2:27

Basically, his swing is great for Dodgers stadium and has a good plan overall: pull side power. And his changes are good for that plan. That sounds good. But yeah, like.... plus hitter, not elite bat

Bobby K

2:27

Ben, I’m still kind of an amateur when it comes to fantasy. What would you say is the best metric / stat right now to focus on this early in the season when picking up and dropping players ? Right now I focus on ISO for power / XWoba & WRC + thank you

Ben Clemens

2:28

I regret to inform you that I am also an amateur when it comes to fantasy baseball. I'm just okay. I don't have the drive to keep up with the roster churn every week when I'm already doing so much other baseball stuff for my job

2:29

but um.... I really like looking at ISO and chase/whiff/swstr stuff early in the year to get an idea of what's really going on. bat speed/barrel/hard hit rates too, kind of get an overall picture

basically just like 'are they hitting the ball hard' and 'are they swinging at bad pitches too much'

CrosbyBaseball

2:29

How worried should we be about Austin Riley seemingly entering his third straight season of just..not being the same guy that signed the extension?

Ben Clemens

2:30

yeah like, fairly worried. He's gone from top 20 trade value to off the list entirely and I mean.... I don't think he's bad. But I do think the risk that he's just a good regular, not an All Star, has gone up a ton since the extension

John

2:30

Idea: WPA, but adjusted so that it gives proportionate credit/debit to the defender/pitcher based on hit probability (per statcast), rather than just assigning it all to the pitcher. Thoughts?

Ben Clemens

2:31

I think it wouldn't really matter enough? Though I understand what you're saying. But like, the total WPA of an out in the situations where Adell robbed the homers just wasn't THAT high. I think it'd require some very fancy math and a ton of assumptions, not just 'oh split the WPA'

2:32

because it's not so much that you turned the PA into an out. It's that you turned the PA from a homer into an out

and unless you start doing some cooking of your own on the side and re-defining 'outcome if not caught' manually, you can't get that effect right

Oddball Herrera

2:32

It's the year 2026 and the Twins are platooning Clemens and Austin Martin as their 1 hitter. Seriously. Forget Robo Umps, can we just hand filling out lineup cards over to the machines?

Ben Clemens

2:32

I'm required to like Kody Clemens because we have the same last name (no relation)

2:33

but yeah... look, really nice utility player. Not an OBP guy

2:34

Now Austin Martin, on the other hand? I'd say that's a little bit of slander. I am not saying he's the perfect player, but the man does get on base, that's his carrying tool

if Austin Martin works out, it'll be as a leadoff hitter, is I guess what I'm saying

2:34

Most baseball players already have elite vision and there’s no sight enhancer that would make any significant difference

Ben Clemens

2:35

sure, seems reasonable to me

Petey Bienel

2:35

The management of Dylan Crews and James Wood are great examples of the "Lerners Are Cheap" viewpoint that simmers among Nats fans. Wood arguably was held down until after the Super 2 deadline when he dominated in the Spring and early season (his oblique end of May was convenient) while Crews was rushed despite holes in order to game for the extra pick.

Ben Clemens

2:35

Yeah, I have heard variations on this from Nats fan friends as well

2:36

Wood being seemingly held down is one that sticks in my mind as a bad look

War2D2

2:37

Ben! I was at the Giants game yesterday, and was struck by just how not-hard Webb throws. He’s not down in Hendricks territory, but he’s knocking on the door. I thought something was wrong but then looked at his history and he’s basically always been around 90-91 with the sinker. He was mostly 89-90 yesterday, but ramped up a couple 4-seamers to 93+ when he was in trouble. What do you think mostly separates a guy like him from the legion of guys out there that can add 3-5mph on top of what he’s throwing? I was thinking of Colin Rea, who throws harder than you’d think, but currently isn’t anything more than a nice-to-have swingman. Is it as simple as pitch shape and baseball IQ, or do you think Webb benefits more than most from having a guy like Bailey behind the plate?

Ben Clemens

2:37

Oh man, an excuse to talk about Logan Webb, well if you insist

2:38

Webb's stuff is down this year, but the models generally like his stuff even though he throws slow. The secondaries are nasty, particularly the change, and his sinker tends to grade out well because its shape just creates a ton of grounders

but yeah, I think he benefits from a few things. Bailey, for sure, because a lot of his pitches produce takes, and he has very good command, so he's getting the ball near the edge a lot.

2:39

Also, that elite command/elite secondaries pairing is rare. Not a lot of sinker-dominant guys walk so few batters

2:40

Rea has a career 1.1 GB/FB, Webb is at 2.54

so I think it's like: the archetype of low-walk groundball pitcher is generally undervalued, because it's not very flashy

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