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Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 4/6/26

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Ben Clemens

2:40

and then Webb happens to be even a little bit of a weird implementation of it in that he doesn't throw hard

Chone

2:41

Fuzzy one to answer but are we mis-applying season projections after a week or two? I can see extremes being meaningful, but I believe Joe Sheehan has made the argument that a team's projection should (or does) have baked in various 3-6 stretches that happen to all teams over a season and that taking [current record] + [projected ROS] is not a super applicable way of thinking.

Ben Clemens

2:41

The short answer: I don't think we are. The long answer: I don't think we are, because Dan Szymborski just wrote an article about it and I read his article

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/yes-pennants-can-be-lost-in-april/

John

2:41

Not sure I'm understanding. The Adell situation is unique, but in most cases: a ball with 90% catch probability, give 90% of the WPA to the pitcher (for creating a ball with that probability) and 10% to the defender (for closing the gap between probably caught and caught).

Or for one that is 90% catch probability and not caught, do the reverse: 90% debit to the defender, 10% to the pitcher, just using whatever the WPA credit/debit is there.

Ben Clemens

2:42

Oh yeah. I'm just saying that won't actually give much wPA to home run robberies. You could totally do it though. But wouldn't you want to do the same with the hits, then? Like if an outfielder misses a 90% catch probability ball, surely that's his fault

Guest

2:42

Is Caleb Durbin cooked? I mean he’s obviously not gonna be this bad going forward, but you have to think that the smartest org in baseball immediately giving up on him after he ostensibly had a good season is a massive red flag

hayz11

2:43

How much of a runway do you give Caleb Durbin? He doesn't have the physical tools to fall back on if his swing decisions/plate discipline take a step back like they have. It's not like the Sox have a lot of great alternatives, but he looks like someone who needs a reset. I think he'll be ok in the long run, but given their start, the Sox don't have much time to sit and wait for him to work through it.

SadSox

2:43

Are the Red Sox offensive troubles more Cora not putting together the right lineup or the front offense not getting the guys needed to succeed in the offseason

Ben Clemens

2:43

Lots of variations on this question, sorry I haven't gotten to them until now, but you guys just have a ton of good questions today

2:44

I mean, I don't think you can give him that much runway on the plate discipline side. Like you said, if that's not there, how is this working?

2:45

I don't think you need to see any specific statistical improvement or anything like that, but c'mon, man, this is not working. His swinging strike rate is more than double last year, that's not gonna pay the bills

2:46

It hasn't been long enough for me to say that this is over. Like, I wouldn't bench him now. But I'm definitely worried. THat's one of the faster-stabilizing statistics, it's core to how he wins at the plate, it matters if he's suddenly much worse at avoiding strikeouts and isn't getting hit by pitches

Sirras

2:47

Ben, it's April. It's too early to panic about [insert player and/or team here]. What can I panic about?

Ben Clemens

2:47

"What can I panic about" hasn't been a problem for me, in the broad, global sense, for quite a while now. In fact, I'd probably prefer to panic about sports even if they aren't actually panic-worthy. So you have my permission to panic about any player at any time, as a coping mechanism

Big Buckston

2:48

Durbin was always walking on a knife's edge last season to me. There just aren't too many guys who can sustain above-average offense over multiple years with the close to zero power + great plate discipline + good contact ability profile. In recent vintage, it's basically Arraez (before he started swinging at everything), Hoerner, Kwan that has made this work over multiple years. Xavier Edwards might be able to, we'll see

Ben Clemens

2:48

Yeah, allow me to say one last thing about Durbin. I feel like I described it, either in my Brewers offseason overview or in a chat, like:

2:49

Brewers think Durbin is worth 2 arbitrary units, the Yankees trade him to the Brewers for 1 arbitrary unit.
Durbin plays like he's worth 4 arbitrary units for a year.
Red Sox offer Brewers 4 arbitrary units for him. Brewers still think he's worth 2 arbitrary units. Um, great, deal.

2:50

now, that's not quite fair, but I think Durbin has the defense + blah slap hitting kind of game that is often an acceptable regular for a few years

and very rarely a star

bosoxforlife

2:50

Jo Adell's incredible game speaks for itself, even more so because he has a reputation for being, let me be polite, a less than average defensive outfielder. The first was good, the second was better and the third was off the charts. Great defense is one of the reasons I wish the ball could be put in play more often.

Ben Clemens

2:50

Great defense is the best

2:51

I prefer the single spectacular play (gimme Denzel Clarke every day) but I can also appreciate a body-of-work game like Adell's. and the last catch was spectacular

Yakety Sox

2:51

Patrick Bailey's wRC+ is 1 right now. That surely will rise some, but how bad could his hitting be and still warrant being a starter given his excellence behind the plate?

Ben Clemens

2:52

I think the level he's hit at in his career (75 wRC+ or so) is kind of a sneaky floor. Like if he falls to a 60 wRC+, then I think his playing time would plummet too

2:53

it's not that it would make him below average. but it'd evaporate a lot of his advantage over a less-extreme catcher profile, and at that point they should rest him more, platoon him, etc.

RED ARMY

2:53

Graham Ashcraft has been awesome so far. He should be closing, right?

Ben Clemens

2:54

I'd try it if I were them

The Actor for Al Pacino

2:54

Have you caught any of Konnor Griffin live yet? Any immediate thoughts? I'm just how struck at his physicality, he looks like a linebacker.

Ben Clemens

2:54

I watched the whole debut and caught some other segments. He's big and fast. It's fun.

2:55

I'm excited to see whether he can hit the ground running

War2D2

2:55

Also about defense: one of the things that made my heart sing yesterday at the Giants game was a random force play where Lindor did some acrobatics behind the bag and flipped it to Semian. Just one of 27 outs, but it was great. I’m not saying that alone was worth the price of admission, but I’m not not saying it.

Ben Clemens

2:55

Lindor is so fun to watch. He's a real acrobat. But he puts a lot of that towards making plays look easier, not harder

2:56

I was watching a nature documentary last night of a puma stalking prey and it's like their bodies have a gyroscope to make everything stay stable. Lindor fields kind of like that.

Guest

2:57

Jordan Walker seems like he's earned his results so far, better bat path and he's always had elite bat speed. Small sample etc but could this be the breakout?

Wethering Holts

2:57

Please please please tell me this small sample of early season measures means that Jordan Walker has magically transformed into a batted ball god and will turn his raw bat speed into 460-foot bombs regularly from now until eternity?

Ben Clemens

2:58

I mean, it's way too soon to say for sure, but this is obviously what you've always hoped walker would do. I think it's all kind of downstream of how good of decisions he's making? Like, he's chasing less but swinging at pitches in the zone much more. and that means he's taking his A swing more, and it also seems like he's lifting more on his A swing?

2:59

anyway the underlying metrics look incredible. But the bigger issue is just that we also have a long sample of him not doing this, and it's only 34 PA. I'm very excited, though, because I want more good hit/bad field sluggers in baseball

it's one of my favorite archetypes and Walker and Heliot Ramos are two elite prospects for it

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