JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 4/6/26

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 4/6/26

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Ryan

2:59

A lot of mention of the Diamondbacks in your article today. Is this indicative of kind of a failed offseason by them? Like sure they could use a league-average first baseman, they should've known they could use one all winter and somehow landed on Carlos Santana

Ben Clemens

3:00

yeah.... look, I think that the first baseman part of that is just saying what we all kind of knew

like, Santana signed a one-year, $2 million deal. No one thought he was going to be a good solution

3:01

and I don't kno wif you can blame them for this, but it's easy enough to look at their rotation and go "eh, yeah, not enough arms"

maybe Soroka will change that

that'd be fun!

but we don't project it that way right now

Jim

3:02

What would you do with the A's bullpen?

Jasper

3:02

Were Mark Leiter Jr. and Scott Barlow really the best the A's FO could get? That bullpen is garbo.

Ben Clemens

3:02

I think I'm with Jasper here. It's not a great unit

3:03

Honestly, I think it's fine? My thinking is that if the A's look like they're in the race in June/July, their bullpen is so bad that they can make a ubnch of cheap upgrades. But their rotation is likely bad enough that it won't matter. So they're trying to save some resources on the 'pen and put them towards other, longer-term things

NY spiritually and physically

3:04

If at the end of April Martian is killing it and Grish is ugh, do the Yankees make a switch?

Ben Clemens

3:06

oof, I don't think so but it's not completely out of the question. I think I'd be more likely to do some kind of split plus backup playing time situation, because I think that a good Grisham is a really useful part of a lot of good Yankees playoff teams, but yeah, you can't just sit on Dominguez forever

John

3:06

Also, I just moved to SF and would love some recommendations for fun and low-cost things to do/ see. I've been enjoying the parks and the museums so far.

Ben Clemens

3:08

Everything GGP-related is awesome. I play tennis at the tennis center there and it's incredible, world class facilities and cheap. I just like walking around. La Taqueria is my favorite burrito place but there's a nice salvadorian breakfast spot up the street that I might like even more. The Presidio is incredible and there are some cool festival type things at the presidio lawn fairly often, usually incredible deals.

I heard the new tunnel tops are great and getting a food hall, haven't made it yet

War2D2

3:08

Matt Boyd on the IL with a “biceps strain.” This is looking increasingly like a precarious season for the Cubs. Given Dan’s article about ROS projections it sure seems like the Cubs should be in the business of overpaying for Sandy Alcantara or Joe Ryan right now, right?

Ben Clemens

3:09

I tend to think so. They were in my upgrades article as one of the teams who could use an average starter most. 10.7% increase in playoff odds from adding 3.2-WAR starter, tied for highest in the league

The Actor for Al Pacino

3:10

Taijuan Walker with a couple of very ugly starts to kick off the season. Can Phillies afford to keep trotting him out there until Wheeler is back in a few weeks? If you were them, would you bite the bullet and give a AAA arm a shot? NL East is looking tough with resurgent Atlanta/NYM and feisty Miami

Ben Clemens

3:10

I think I still prefer Taijuan to their existing options. It's a bind! Like, if Painter is great, paying up for a fifth starter right now is bad

and you should just roll with it, at which point I think Walker is the best choice

3:11

but if you're worried about a)Painter sustainability b)Wheeler health c)depth, then maybe you should just go trade for someone good if possible

because i agree, it's not great right now, and it's not clear how quickly that will improve

George

3:12

Cardinals/Nats question: Nats are going with a heavy lefty lineup against Pallante, who has careverse splits (likely because of the arm angle). Would you trust hitter splits or pitcher splits when they differ like that?

sorry typo on the Pallante question. I meant Career splits**

Ben Clemens

3:12

always, always, trust pitcher splits more. The pitcher has a lot more to do with the things that matter for platooning. release points, arm angles, pitch shapes, etc.

3:13

so yeah, this is not smart? Pallante has been WAY better against lefties than righties, over 1,000 lefties faced, and like, WAY better, 14% better

Big Buckston

3:13

Mookie injury is really unfortunate obviously, but it is a bit funny to me that the Dodgers, with their wealth of money and players, will be counting on Alex Freeland, Miguel Rojas, Hyeseong Kim, and Santiago Espinal to man the middle infield for the foreseeable future. Do they make a move for a middle infielder, or just roll with these guys and play the hot hand?

Ben Clemens

3:13

If I'm them, I jsut roll with it

3:14

like, you're gonna make the playoffs. you're gonna win the NL West. At the end of the year, you know that Betts and Edman are likely ticketed for those spots. Why spend resources running up the score on the rest of the division?

Pokey Reese

3:14

Do we just have to accept PCA's 2025 first half as a mirage and that he will be a lifetime Jackie Bradley Jr?

Ben Clemens

3:14

no, but obviously that's the risk in his profile

3:15

like.... he clearly needs to improve his approach if he's going to be an elite hitter

he can be an elite player even without being an elite hitter because everything else is so good. But you just can't swing like he does and be 35%, 40% above average offensively

the math does not work

Let Lefties Hit

3:15

I understand platoon maximization is so hot right now, but why don't more teams let guys who rake (specifically lefties) get more PAs against same handed? O'Hearn, Kerry Carpenter, Pavin Smith, etc. If the "normal" wRC+ drop going from platoon advantage to disadvantage is 15 points, these guys should be allowed to develop it seems. They're all pushing 120 or better wRC+ values in given years.

Ben Clemens

3:16

I tend to agree

I guess one thing is that load management and rest are big these days

and it's a kind of comparative advantage situation at times. Like, I know that I want 600 PA from Kerry and 150 PA from his righty backup (whoever you designate that as). Might as well give the at-bats against lefties to the righty!

Jasper

3:17

You said Kurtz should be attacking early more. Is hitting him leadoff messing with that attack plan?

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