JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 5/12/25

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 5/12/25

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sgtjunior

2:28

rest of season in NL only, Kepler or Moniak?

Ben Clemens

2:29

jeez

I guess Kepler?

slim pickings in NL only!

Phils

2:29

What's up with Orion Kerkering? Stuff has looked meh, fastball velo is down, and he's getting shelled. Worth a trip to AAA to get him right?

Ben Clemens

2:29

Yeah

I think

or an IL stint maybe? I don't know the deal obviously, but the velo is suggestive

Jeremy

2:29

Odds that the Orioles end up like the 2013-15 Pirates or the 2020-21 White Sox? Brief window of contention that closed much faster than fans expected it to due to front office mismanagement, followed by indefinite years in the wilderness?

Ben Clemens

2:29

Nah, I don't see it

I think they're too good at churning out prospects

2:30

I can see a Rays-y or Brewers-y path though

where the window of contention is always open but never all that ajar

Carson

2:30

Hey Ben, as a Cardinals fan, what can I tangibly take from Libby this year that gives me confidence his start to the year can be maintained? (I have gone from nervously excited, to optimistic about the team as a whole)

Ben Clemens

2:31

A big thing is that he's figuring out how to throw his pitch mix a bit better

and his command has taken a step forward

2:32

for a lefty who used to be sinker-dominant, those are both huge

he's only 25 and he's been better than you'd think, career FIP below 4

cool

1

and I think it's fair to say that when he came over from the Rays, his sinker/curve pitch mix was kinda non-functional

2:33

so he's been re-learning an arsenal on the fly. That makes me confident that his real skill -- manipulating spin -- has been here all along

and they're just finding a better way to express it now

Jeremy

2:33

Phils are going to regret not resigning Jeff Hoffman, right?

Ben Clemens

2:33

yeah, but one of those 'good process bad results' kinda regrets I think?

awy

2:33

with bat path becoming more observable and quantifiable when will amateur scouting parameters change to emphasize this sort of stuff, since it's way more important than almost anything else given a certain threshold of physical ability.

Ben Clemens

2:34

it's tricky because bat path can be changed more easily than a lot of things

Oaktown Blues

2:34

Is Luis Urias good again? (Or maybe better than before? 11% K rate is promising)

Ben Clemens

2:34

Oh man, I'm ready to be fooled again

I'm Charlie Brown to Luis Urias's Lucy, I keep talking about how he's a great acqusiition every time some team acquires him for cheap because he failed at hte last stop

but yes, this time it's different!

Namiki

2:35

Rōki Sasaki is struggling in MLB, but why do you think his 96-mph fastball isn’t getting any whiffs?

Ben Clemens

2:35

have you guys messed around with the Dynamic Dead Zone tool?

https://dynamic-dead-zone.streamlit.app/

2:36

It's only through 2024, I think, so I can't exactly put ROki in there, but I think this idea helps explain it generally

his four-seamer moves exactly like you'd expect it to, it doesn't have any particularly outstanding features that I can see

2:37

it's no coincidence that our models hate it

my guess is that the Dodgers weren't trying to tinker with what he wanted to do TOO hard before he first encountered the majors, and that we'll see him change pitch shapes and maybe even add some new breaking stuff later in the year or in 2026

2:38

but like, Eric gave his fastball a below average grade despite the velo, and yeah, I agree

Kwanbelievable

2:38

What would you have put the odds at preseason that both Gabriel Arias and Daniel Schneemann would have 3x the amount of WAR that Andres Gimenez does halfway through May?

Ben Clemens

2:38

higher than you think, but becaues of the risk of zeroes and injuries

H

2:38

I've seen some experts being negative on Elko. Do you see Elko as more than a Quad-A player?

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