JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 5/12/25

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Bullock

2:38

What's the difference among "too old to be a prospect AAA demolisher" guys like Misner, Crim, and Elko? One comes out good (duh, they mashed AAA) the next is nothing (duh, they're 27 in AAA). Help, I see no rhyme or reason

Ben Clemens

2:39

I don't have strong insight into how Elko will turn out, but why in the world wouldn't you try?

Jeremy

2:39

Re: the Orioles maybe following the Rays/Brewers (and let's add Mariners) path of trying--mostly successfully--to always be competitive without ever going all-in to create a top-tier contender: I would like to hear from fans of these teams as to whether they like it that way? It seems like it varies? I get the sense that Brewers fans like it, Mariners fans hate it, and the Rays don't really have enough fans to tell what their fans think?

Ben Clemens

2:40

I know a good number of Brewers fans and no Rays fans, so I feel more qualified to respond to that one in particular. I think they like it because they get the financial constraints in Milwaukee. YOu can't not. Chicago is RIGHT there

and it's just very clear that Chicago is hogging a lot of the area resources, as it were

2:41

we often take the bus to O'Hare to fly home rather than leave from Milwaukee because there are no directs, which is very emblematic

I don't think Baltimore could work with that vibe b/c DC isn't in the AL East

like, it just doesn't feel like an underdog mentality team to me

but I'm a lot less confident in that view than I am in my Brewers fans psychology view, so take it with a grain of salt

Tomboy

2:42

I've always been curious....Do the best hitters in baseball usually look for certain types of pitches, or do they look for locations? I'm assuming to look for locations, you would have to possess elite pitch recognition.....Have you ever heard players talk of this? When I played, I looked for in zone vs out of zone, and wasn't worried about pitch type...

Ben Clemens

2:42

It's all a matter of degree, but 'if it's high let it fly, if it's low let it go' is conventional wisdom for a reason

2:43

I think that things like that -- "I'm trying to hit a fastball, and I'm looking high, but I'm feeling aggressive so if I swing over a slider I'll live with it" is a swing thought I can imagine a major leaguer executing

"I'm looking up and in for a fastball or down andn away for a slider" less so

Jacob Wilson

2:43

Do you think I could lead a mini-revolution in analytics? Pushing lower bat speed = more time in zone = more contact? Or mixing bat speeds based on counts kinda like pitchers do?

Ben Clemens

2:43

mmmmmm.... maybe for guys with similar skillsets?

but like, it mostly doesn't work

Jacob Wilson has 70 bat control or something

marc Kartman

2:43

Can't speak for all Brewers fans, but I view fandom as consuming entertainment. If I can be entertained (i.e. my team is competitive and I like watching them and reading about them almost every day during the season) all season year after year, I'll take that over winning it all once but going years sometimes where I'm not entertained by my team at all.

Ben Clemens

2:44

yeah so, I agree with you on that front overall

I love a competitive team more than anything

I think that most fans don't feel that way? Strangely

and I think that it's easier to want a competitive team if you're at least a little bit thinking 'yeah because we won't ever be the DOdgers anyway'

2:45

the O's have a private equity billionaire owner and they play in the AL East, it just feels different to me somehow

Brewers fan here

2:45

I like it but only to the extent that (1) our track record at the indefinite window model has been nothing short of exceptional over the last 7-8 years and (2) it’s been made pretty clear by ownership that there is no available choice beyond this approach. So, with those expectations in place, the result is we feel positively spoiled when ownership splurges on 2/34 with a player option for Rhys Hoskins

Ben Clemens

2:45

Yeah, well said

Kwanbelievable

2:45

Had a funny interaction at work the other day where I commented on the irony of calling something Bayesian when it was clearly frequentist and using p-values. Awkward chuckle in the room, apparently nobody understood the difference. Petition for a bring Ben Clemens to work day where he sits in and backs you up on your statistical nerdity

Ben Clemens

2:45

I"m not even sure I use Bayesian right every time

but, more frequently tha nnot

2:48

With the Twins and Cardinals playing themselves back over .500 and Alcantara struggling, who's the best pitcher traded at the deadline this season? At this rate it feels like the market is going to be memorably sparse.

Ben Clemens

2:49

I think there's still a chance it's Sonny Gray

but yeah, the way the season is shaking out, there are definitely fewer options than expected

Roman

2:49

Re Joey Bart, the Padres should be knocking down their door trying to get him to replace Maldonado and bridge to Salas, who is developing on a much slower timeline than the Padres may have anticipated

Ben Clemens

2:49

yeah, great example

and he's even a former top prospect so I bet AJ loves him

Gaints

2:49

Webb looks great as usual, Hicks has great peripherals, Verlander and Ray looked bad early on but have had a couple good starts in a row, and Roupp has been looking shaky. What do you think the Giants rotation will look like at the end of the year?

Ben Clemens

2:50

I think that Birdsong is gonna end the year in the rotation

probably over Roupp. And I think the team would prefer Verlander to either find a little more juice or end up as the fifth starter

Re: Fanbases

2:50

The world needs Heroes. The world also needs Heels. Anybody who watched pro wrestling as a kid, or adult I guess, knows this. The evil Philly fa base is just as necessary and possibly more entertaining than the mild Fanbases of let's say Kansas City, where everybody is delightful, until you leave the stadium parking lot at least.

Ben Clemens

2:50

Oh, completely agree

Heels are really important

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