JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 5/12/25

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Kwanbelievable

2:51

Update re: Brandon Webb Cy Young odds since last week's mailbag: tossed a gem against Minnesota (7IP, 2ER, 9Ks), and his odds dropped from +1000 to +1200 and he is still 5th behind Skenes, Yamamoto, Greene, and Wheeler

Ben Clemens

2:51

tell you what, I'll lay you +2000 on a Brandon Webb Cy YOung

Logan is certainly being disrespected, though

Re: Orioles vs Rays/Brewers

2:51

It's also easier to tolerate the approach when the team actually has had years of consistent success. The Rays and Brewers have been mediocre at worst since some current college students were born, the Orioles were actively tanking post-pandemic, there just isn't trust there.

Ben Clemens

2:51

I agree with this take

Alex Anthopoulos

2:51

Can I realistically maintain the "still early" narrative with a straight face, when this team has glairing holes to overcome in offense that come from last season. Is it fair to say the Braves championship window is slowly closing?

Ben Clemens

2:52

I think 'still early' is fine, but yeah, "the braves don't have any depth' is not exactly a new thing

and I'm very surprised that they didn't address it meaningfully more this winter

they're lucky Nick Allen can pick it

2:53

otherwise, they'd have soooooo many roster spots delivering almost nothing

tortycraig

2:53

Ivan Herrera + Luken Baker for Rafael Devers who says no

Ben Clemens

2:53

the Cardinals haha

Rafael Devers for a handshake, I think almost every team in baseball is saying no right now

that's a BIG contract

2:54

when I asked a number of team sources last year on trade value stuff, I put basically all the large-contract stars on the list for feedback

and Devers was, by general acclamation, the least attractive combo of deal/player among the All Star types

Brandon Webb/Logan Webb

2:55

Too many Webbs.....I can keep track of 200 Rodriguezs, but draw the line at one Webb

Ben Clemens

2:55

Doesn't help that they're both sinkerballers

Too many puppieeeeeees

2:55

Kyle Isbel and Carter Jensen for Rafael Devers.....who says no?

Ben Clemens

2:55

Oh man, Kyle Isbel has been WAY better than I thought this year

0.5 WAR, that's like 1 WAR better than I expected

2:56

now, what if it was Hunter Renfroe for Devers but you had to play him every day?

maybe both sides would say no

Razor shines

2:56

Kicuchi or houck ros. Gotta cut one.

Ben Clemens

2:56

yeesh

I think I'd keep Kikuchi but man, they've both fallen off this year huh

Michael Harris

2:57

Seems to be the poster child for age based over-projection. Generally, I think most players are going to produce within parameters that can be anchored to their first ~600 PA.
Would you agree with that claim and if yes, who is the player having some success now that everyone is linearly scaling

Ben Clemens

2:57

mmmm.... I guess the counterpoint I'd make is that Michael Harris was great in his first 600 PA

He had like a 130 wRC+ with elite CF defense

2:58

I agree with the idea that phenoms have different development profiles than other players, i.e. they've probably done more of their development by age 21 than your average player

but this concept is notoriously difficult to prove, and it's one of those 'I feel it but I can't put words to it' thing

Guest

2:58

Wow, I had no idea the Devers contract was so underwater. Crazy for a deal that was signed basically two seasons ago, and he's performed roughly to expectations since

Ben Clemens

2:59

I think people disagree on just how underwater it is, but basically it was considered an overpay, 'we're boston we need to keep some dudes' kinda deal even when he signed it

and now the best 2+ years have already happened, you know?

Cutting Houck/Kikuchi

2:59

There has to be to be two better guys out there.....lol

Porque no los dos?

Ben Clemens

2:59

yeah very good point haha

but of the options presented!

Bullock

2:59

Sugano is throwing six different pitches each more than 10% of the time. No question, just wow, can't remember seeing that before