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Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 5/16/22

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Ben Clemens

2:26

Yes

That's a lot of strikeouts

2:27

Worried for sure

Timmy Oneil

2:27

JRod is hitting 385 over the past 7 days, 333 over the past 15, 288 over the past 30. Did we just watch a prospect adjust their approach in real time? Think the inverse of Kelenic, Adell, etc.

Ben Clemens

2:28

It sure feels that way. Again, sample size caveats and all, and let's let him do it for a little longer before we break out the Mission Accomplished banner. But it's really fun to watch him, and it definitely gives me confidence that he's gonna be great

NashvilleSounds

2:28

Very dumb question, but does position player pitching impact WAR? I assume it does, but also kind of silly for Pujols to eat a little value for doing in-game BP. (Also rather funny he just keeps putting up the same stat line, and it keeps looking better and better vs the league average.)

Ben Clemens

2:28

If you look at Pujols's player page, you'll see that there are now 'Batting' and 'Pitching' tabs

He's been worth 0.2 WAR batting (over 56 PA, a pretty nice clip) and -0.1 WAR pitching

If I were you, I'd just ignore the pitching WAR

2:29

And unless you use our combined WAR leaderboards, that's exactly what you'll see

If you look at the Cardinals' hitter page (https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0...), he shows up with 0.2 WAR

I think that's the right way to think about it

McHops

2:29

What once looked like the worst trade in team history (giving up Grisham for Urias/Lauer) looks like a pretty good deal for the Brewers. With that said, will either Urias or Lauer ever be more than merely above average over the course of a full season?

Ben Clemens

2:30

I think that Urias has a chance to be an All Star level guy for a few years

I kept not writing about Lauer b/c I couldn't find what he was doing that was so different he was suddenly unhittable

and then hey, he got hit

This is definitely a situation where he's gonna have to prove me wrong

before I re-evaluate Lauer to ace-level or even ace-lite-level in my head

Not that Eric Lauer cares how I evaluate him!

Stephen

2:31

It's too early to give up on Dylan Carlson, right? (from a fantasy perspective) Lots of blue on his statcast page, but at least he's shown great plate discipline?

Ben Clemens

2:31

Yeah, too early to give up, and the Statcast page repeats a bunch of things so if you're blue you're gonna be very blue

That said, I'm definitely a little worried

Hit the ball harder, Dylan!

Morbo

2:31

Moog, I'd say it also depends on where you throw the ball in the zone. You probably shouldn't throw your average spin sinker up in the zone, looking at you Steven Matz

Ben Clemens

2:31

Oof, the harsh Matz burn is merited

2:32

I'm a Matz fan but I'm worried about his performance so far this year. With the Cardinals' defense, he should just throw everythin down in the zone and live with it, imo

Wandando Acutis Jr

2:32

Other than those who have done it, who is the player with the best chance of putting up a 9 WAR season?

Ben Clemens

2:32

Hm.... I'm gonna say Tatis. My thinking here is that with him, we know he can play at that pace

And so if he spikes a healthy season when he's playing at this level, it's in range

2:33

Acuna is in a similar place

Buxton as well

Guys like that are my best bets

With Soto and Vlad Jr., my two picks for best current hitter, they will need to show a new level somewhere in their game

9 WAR is a ton

Dude

2:33

Most WAR rest of career: Harper or Betts?

Ben Clemens

2:34

Gimme Betts, but I think both will age pretty well. I just think Betts will add a lot more value doing non-hitting stuff

Zach

2:34

Is Muncy going to turn things around? Seems like he might still be hurt?

Ben Clemens

2:34

I think he's still hurt

Texas Blues

2:35

How did Semien falls so far, so fast? I wasn't expecting the 45 HR he hit last year but 20-25 would seem to be reasonable. Is he complete sunk cost at this point?

Ben Clemens

2:35

Again with the complete sunk cost after 100-something PA's

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