JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 5/16/22

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 5/16/22

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Ben Clemens

2:35

He's not!

2:36

I think he's been a lot worse than Grisham, though, and I'm definitely more worried by his power outage. I think the fact that our projections think he's a 120 wRC+ hitter the rest of the way should tell you how worried models that are based on past hitter performance feel about his start

Which is to say, a little worried, but still think he's good

It's worth noting, though, that Semien is the kind of hitter who might be most hurt by the less-lively ball

2:37

He lifts and pulls EVERYTHING, and gets a ton of value by maxing out on pulled fly balls. As those decline in value, you have to worry about his profile. I don't think he's gonna stay this bad but this is the kind of thing that can happen when you're a max-out-middling-power guy

I think he's more average hitter than stud going forward

Zach

2:37

Think Lane Thomas or Tsutsugo return to their form from the 2nd half of last year?

Ben Clemens

2:37

No to both

2:38

Lane Thomas was an okay minor league hitter who put up a nice 200 PA with the Nats last year, but he also batted 58 times for the Cards and was really bad

His aggregate line last year? 103 wRC+

2:39

And I'd have taken the under on it before this year. I don't think he's gonna keep striking out 30% of the time, but he doesn't have plus power, and before walking 14% of the time out of nowhere last year, was mostly average ish in terms of walks and strikeouts

I think he's a perfectly nice fourth outfielder, nothing more

As for Tsutsugo, same kinda deal... had a nice hot streak, power outage this year

2:40

I don't think he's as bad as his 2022 but expecting him to keep up the 134 wRC+ he put up in Pitt (as opposed to a 36 in two different stops) seems like wishful thinking

The Real Ben Clemens

2:40

How long into a pitcher's career would you say it takes for something like GB% to stabilize? Like at what point have they demonstrated that it's a repeatable skill for them and less of a flukey BABIP type thing

Ben Clemens

2:40

GB%? Fast!

Like, a year

Now, pitchers can change their pitch mix, and GB% can change along iwth that

Some Guy

2:41

For Andres Gimenez, do you think his contact or power is more likely to stick around?

Ben Clemens

2:41

Contact. I'm not super confident in that, but I dunno, my mental heuristic for him has always been hit over power

bosoxforlife

2:41

Last year Gallo finished below the Mendoza Line. It looks like there may be several qualifiers who do that this year. At this moment there are no less than 23 qualifiers below .200 and 30 more below .220. This cannot be good for the game.

Ben Clemens

2:42

It's definitely not good for the game. If baseball was a game where 2 runs scored per game, it would suck. We're not there yet, but batting averages this low are no fun. Hits are fun, they're consistently the most fun plays in the game. I hope that baseball is thinking of better ways to increase hits than 'ban the shift', though every drop helps

Todd Bonzalez

2:42

I missed the pets named after athletes conversation last week, but I feel like I have a good one to share. I grew up with a PBGV named Archie Griffon. (He lived to 17!)

Ben Clemens

2:42

What a delight

barney gumble

2:42

Clay Holmes is a top (____) reliever in baseball

Ben Clemens

2:42

Let's get wild

Top 10

Morbo

2:43

Looking at 2021 vs 2022 Lauer has started locating his 4 seamer higher up in the top third of the zone more frequently and also more arm side rather than middle middle. He's also throwing his slider low and glove side instead of in the upper 1/3rd of the zone and glove side. This also corresponds with at 10% increase in his slider rate. So basically he redesigned his slider this year and then figured out how to locate it effectively this year while improving his 4 seamer location and movement. So basically the Brewers did Brewers pitching things with him

Ben Clemens

2:45

Eh..... I'm mostly unconvinced. Like, those things are pretty marginal changes. I kind of agree that he's locating better, but it's a pretty marginal difference. I'll buy those changes, but to me that makes him still a pretty average starter

Steve O

2:46

Aaron Judge is on pace for 10.5 WAR lol. He'd need to produce at an 8.6 WAR pace for the remainder of the season to reach 9 WAR. Not insane, especially with his power not really affected by the dead ball so his wRC+ will be higher in this environment. Add in him playing a solid CF every now and then, and it's doable! Like maybe a 5% chance or something.

Ben Clemens

2:46

What a monster

Really fun to have Judge mashing again

The Real Ben Clemens

2:46

Do you see any team making an impact trade in May soon, a la the 2021 Brewers trading for Adames? If so, who?

Ben Clemens

2:47

I don't see one offhand. But if someone does it, I think it would be the Twins and a pitcher. Joe Ryan is fun, Josh Winder is fun, Gray is back, etc.... but I think they are just on borrowed time a little bit in the rotation

2:48

and getting someone now who could fill a ton of innings at an above-average rate seems like a very good plan for them

bosoxforlife

2:48

NO! It is definitely NOT fun to see Judge mashing again, but he is one great player.

Ben Clemens

2:49

:) leaving team allegiance aside, lol

Guest

2:49

is nimmo likely to start the all star game this year?

Ben Clemens

2:50

Ooh, good one! I am going to say no, but it'll be close. I just have a hard time seeing Soto or Betts miss starting given the seasons they're having. That only leaves one slot. I do think Nimmo deserves to be there on merit, but that's just a narrow hole to sneak through

P Pujols

2:50

Presumably every other position player on the Cards could have pitched better than old Albert Pujols but it was fun anyway!

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