JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 5/18/26

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 5/18/26

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Ben Clemens

2:54

so batters know that the pitches are harder to hit, and also that if you put the ball in the field of play it's harder than ever to be safe. So the smart move from an EV maximization standpoint is to make the contact that you do make undefendable

2:55

I am hopeful that one of the knock-on effects of ABS will be pitchers realizing that too many of their 'unhittable pitches' are unhittable but also not getting swung at, and taht the increased accuracy and also increased passivity of hitters means that throwing this way is resulting in too many walks

so you could see it pushing pitchers to a more 'pitch-to-contact' style, which might turn the equation around. BUt I'm just forecasting, and I really haven't seen much evidence of that change in behavior yet

Kwan

2:56

Is it over? Has something changed about my profile or have defenses just gotten better at playing at the right shallow places?

Ben Clemens

2:56

I definitely don't think it's just about the defenses. One way of looking at this is that KWan's line drive rate has gone 23%/25%/24%/26%/19%

2:57

and his hard-hit rate is a career low too

like, a .055 ISO isn't just because your bloops aren't falling

Kwan has historically basically tracked his xwOBA. This year, his xwOBA is down a ton. That's worrisome!

Matthew Tobin

2:57

A bit of a hot take, but MLB should mandate at least 1 day game per day. I want something to watch while I eat lunch.

trophy

1

Ben Clemens

2:57

I couldn't agree more

2:58

I really hate the feeling of finishing my article for the day, turning on the tv, and it says the first game starts at 4:15

what? c'mon man! it's 2:30. I want to watch some random games

Indecisive Fantasy GM

2:58

Is there anything that should stop me from cutting bait on George Springer? I want to be patient but in a 10 team h2h points league, hard to justify it much longer.

Ben Clemens

2:58

I did it alreayd. I didn't feel good about it but the benches were just too shallow

skip

2:58

How would you rank the projected career value of Burns, McLean, Misiorowski, Schlittler?

Ben Clemens

2:59

I almost didn't put this one up because I'm struggling to come up witha good ranking

I think I'd have it like Miz>McLean=Schlittler>Burns

but I don't have huge confidence and I love watching all four

20longyears

2:59

Are the Pirates in trouble?

Ben Clemens

2:59

I am gonna say yes

3:00

generally speaking, that's been a good lean in the 21st century

Sal's Mom

3:00

Elly is tracking for ~8 WAR and really hasn't had a hot streak yet

Ben Clemens

3:00

and he's hitting well righty!

3:01

big year so far for the cohort of young athletic guys I've been irrationally high on for a while (Elly and Wood are the two I have in mind)

Junior Caminero Jr.

3:01

Is there any data on whether it's more beneficial to have a winning record in the first or second half of the season?

Ben Clemens

3:01

I don't remember the exact specifics but Dan looked into this and the general answer is it matters a little, but only inasmuch as it reveals team composition

like, if you traded for a bunch of dudes and got better, or you traded away a bunch of dudes and got worse, that matters

but it's pretty small, and for static teams, it doesn't matter

3:02

I think Dan found that preseason projections are STILL better predictors of playoff success than second-half record, even folding in the info that second half record gives you about team composition

CFH

3:02

Feels like a good time to be a Yankee fan - the team looks like a less of a one-man show than recent years, the underperformers (Grisham, Chisholm) are also the pending free agents, their current rival for the AL East looks kinda like a paper tiger (to me), the scary AL East rivals are underperforming - Yankee fans have a bit of a reputation for complaining about good teams so I thought I should say it

Ben Clemens

3:02

you love to see it

3:03

yeah it's a good year for the Yankees so far. Ben Rice being good really solves a lot of problems

didace

3:03

"I am hopeful that one of the knock-on effects of ABS will be pitchers realizing that too many of their 'unhittable pitches' are unhittable but also not getting swung at, and taht the increased accuracy and also increased passivity of hitters means that throwing this way is resulting in too many walks" They could also change the check swing enforcement so that there are fewer called strikes. As an aside, why can a catcher challenge a non-swing call but a batter can't challenge a swing call?

Ben Clemens

3:03

they're testing it in the minors!

Straw

3:03

Is this just who Pete Crow Armstrong is? First half 2025 sure seems like the exception, not the rule.

Ben Clemens

3:04

My view is yes

and to be claer, this version of PCA is on pace for a 6-win season

I don't think he'll quite hit that, even, because I think his defense isn't QUITE this good

but yeah.... look if you took first-half PCA from last year at face value, he should have been #1 in trade value

I think that some regression was already baked in

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