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Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 5/18/26

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Ben Clemens

3:05

and he's just hitting it now

with his approach, there's just no way around some rouhg hitting stretches

grandbranyan

3:05

Anyone that doesn't like 3TO should just watch the Brewers. 24th in HR but 4th in runs scored since 2024 with 1st in BsR (by over 15 runs), 3rd in ground ball rate, 1st in ground ball BABIP (by a dozen points), 1st in PA / 2nd in RBI with RISP

Ben Clemens

3:05

yeah

3:06

another reason to think of the Brewers as the modern-day Rays: they're zigging wehre everyone else zags

Nomar6666666

3:06

What’s your feeling on how Lucas Giolito will do in San Diego?

Ben Clemens

3:06

I find myself surprisingly optimistic

Not like I think he's gonna be an ace or anything

but I like his odds of churning out some usable innings

3:07

the Padres have a solid track record of getting something decent out of guys the rest of us are skeptical about, and Giolito was a perfectly acceptable depth starter just last year

Indecisive Fantasy GM

3:07

Thanks for answering my question! If I'm allowed a followup...would you prefer Nimmo or Caglianone ROS in a points league?

Ben Clemens

3:07

ooh. Probably Nimmo but I'm not an incredible fantasy player or anything

bosoxforlife

3:07

About the only thing that could help the hitters at this moment is a quick acceptance of the Adjudicated Check Swing. So many of the times that a hitter gets rung up are outrageous.

Ben Clemens

3:08

I agree that it'd be nice to have check swings not called so aggressively

that's a clear lever that could be pulled to increase offense. I'm actually unsure why baseball hasn't tried something before now

looking at what a swing meant in the 70s compared to now is silly

3:08

No shot Bo Bichette opts out at end of season barring an absurd hot streak, right? He's really struggling and looks like he's presssing.

Ben Clemens

3:08

concur

MTF

3:09

Given the Guradians are the only team to have got by using five starters so far, and the paucity of good pitching in their system, are we seeing peak Guardians right now? A wide open division race from here on out, would you say?

Ben Clemens

3:09

yeah, I think that's fair. I think that they seem aware of this - leaning heavily on framing is a good way to make that sting less, for exmaple

Andrew Mattison

3:09

Are the playoff odds too sticky sometimes? I'm surprised to see the White Sox still well behind the Twins and Royals, both of whom have looked pretty bad, and the White Sox have those banked wins. I'm not saying that any of them are likely to make the playoffs, just that they seem similarly remote.

Ben Clemens

3:09

Yes.

3:10

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fun-with-playoff-odds-modeling/

the takeaway is basically this

the general moves the Bayes model is making – shading teams whose performance and divisional position don’t match our preseason expectations – make a lot of sense to me.

3:11

when I built a model that takes season-to-date stats more into account when they differ heavily from projections, I beat the existing model by a bit

alright everyone, this was a wonderful (and dense!) chat but it's time for me to get back to my job

3:12

look for an article about Cristopher Sanchez tomorrow, plus some FG Lab tools in the coming weeks (perhaps one this week)

and lunch guy, I'm having leftovers of that green salad from earlier for lunch today

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