JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 5/2/22

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Ben Clemens

2:57

I think a lot of it comes down to the fact that OPS is easier to understand. It's on-base plus slugging

It's also fairly close to wRC+; it's worse, but it's getting a lot of the way there. I think it makes sense given its huge improvement over batting average, and the fact that it's made up of stats people know gives it a big leg up

Steve O

2:58

Wait, there's a Yankee Stadium adjustment? I though Yankee Stadium was basically a neutral environment overall? Also his GB rate is basically at his career mark. 48.3%

Ben Clemens

2:59

Well if you're not giving up homers, particularly lefties, it's a good defensive stadium. And perhaps I should say that his fly ball rate is unsustainably low rather than gb unsustainably high; he's giving up a bunch of low line drives that are somewhere between grounders and line drives at the moment, but I don't think he's gonna continue to put up a 17% flyball rate

Thomas

2:59

Because you asked for board game talk last week, here are some games that I've been really into in the last couple years: Inis, Brass: Birmingham, Modern Art, Concordia. Played any of them? Brass and Modern Art especially seem like they'd be up your alley

Ben Clemens

3:00

Inis is so good! Modern Art is my favorite auction game of all time not particularly close. My friend has an old copy of it that has fake pictures (I've heard the new versions have actual pictures) and a house rule that you have to make up the names of each piece and describe them like an art snob

Really puts it over the top

Shout out to Ra as another great auction game, but Modern Art is just incredible. Simple rules and yet a blast to play. Everyone should try it

RJD

3:00

why does projected standings and playoff odds have different projected wins? would think these two systems would be in sync. (projected: Yankees 94.6, Jays 94.1; odds: Jays:95, Yankees 94.7)

Ben Clemens

3:01

We probably need a better explainer for this. On projected standings, we don't consider schedule at all

It's literally just how many runs we project them to score, how many runs we expect them to allow, plug that into Pythagorean expectation

3:02

On playoff odds, we work out each team's neutral-opponent win percentage, then plug those all into the actual schedule and simulate the season 20,000 times

3:03

In your example, if you look at 'strength of sched' on playoff odds, you can see that the Blue Jays have an easier schedule the rest of the way (.493 vs. 500). Seven points of win percentage over 140-ish games is about a win, et voila

Thomas

3:04

The art in the current edition of Modern Art is really gorgeous. They actually got pieces from a bunch of working artists. And agreed, it's the best auction game! Ra is great too, very different though, and less of a pure auction game.

Ben Clemens

3:04

Perhaps I should take a look at the current version then. But yeah, it's great, everyone play it. I've heard Brass is great too, it's on my list to try

Led Tasso

3:04

"simulate the season 20,000 times"

Like Dr. Strange

Ben Clemens

3:04

I only found one reality where the Orioles made the playoffs

Million Bux

3:05

Just want to say a healthy Buxton is great for baseball. No matter how many stats or highlights I see it never gets old

Ben Clemens

3:05

Buxton is not my favorite player to watch (that's Javy Baez). But he's in the top 5, and I think that's basically inarguable

3:06

I just want him to stay on the field; he's a ton of fun on offense and defense when he's out there

Guest

3:06

Did the Braves make a mistake not signing a decent outfielder like Canha this off-season. Consistency has been a huge issue so far

Ben Clemens

3:07

I think a lot of teams should have signed Canha. Not too worried about Atlanta yet, though. Consistency has been an issue for a lot of teams, and having Acuna back is going to make all the rotations work a lot better

Morbo

3:07

What are the chances that Ben Joyce gets drafted and appears in the majors this year. Seems pretty hard to argue that a guy that throws 105 and has a crazy slider isn't MLB ready

Ben Clemens

3:08

I've been discussing this with friends; I kind of think it's gonna hapepn

(we were actually discussing which round he might go in)

If you're a team in a playoff race who needs good relievers anyway.... I mean, that guy's stuff plays

It's just clear it plays

Jack

3:09

If you were given limitless batting practice opportunities, do you think you could hit a home run in any major league stadium?

Ben Clemens

3:09

No, but I suck at baseball

Maybe if I got to train for a while first

Those stadiums are big, though. You need to be strong to hit a ball out

Andrew Luck Dragon

3:09

No question, just pointing out the Dbacks are somehow running a .215 team BABIP...

Ben Clemens

3:09

great username, and also yeah that doesn't seem great!

Johnny5Alive

3:10

Speaking about guys out of the pen being really good right now, what about what drew smith is doing for the mets? Almost Helsley like... I am still worried about their pen though...

Ben Clemens

3:10

I'm gonna shamelessly echo what Mike Petriello said -- Smith has done something interesting to the shape of his slider, making it more downward-breaking

3:11

He looks the part, all of the sudden. Mets bullpen is pretty good imo. I didn't love letting Adam Ottavino face Kyle Schwarber when he's ROOGY-ish and there aren't many lefties on the Phillies, but I think they're quite a good pen overall

3:12

Honestly, I didn't see a ton of criticism of that, and what the heck? Joe Girardi talked a good amount about how he needed to separate out his only two lefties because he just didn't have many boppers who were lefty

3:13

and then a guy with huge splits b/c of the shape of his pitches ends up facing one of them? I guess with Herrera in it's not quite so obvious, but it just feels like the Mets could've used someone less splitty and saved Ottavino for lower in the lineup

Guest

3:13

Do you think you could hit a home run out of Yankee Stadium to right field? It's a meatball down the middle

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