JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 5/2/22

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Ben Clemens

3:13

I'm even a lefty! But eh, right now no

x2R

3:13

Early surprise: Twins or Angels (pitching)?

Ben Clemens

3:14

Angels! Maybe they're similarly unexpected this year, but the Angels' pitching futility has built up for so long that it shocks me when they're decent

I understand that the Twins leaned really hard into the low-velo types in the 2010's, but the Angels just felt cursed by an ancient deity or something

Jackson Ingram

3:14

Favorite city connect jersey so far?

Ben Clemens

3:15

After spending a while mocking them, I think it might be Houston? They're a little cutesy, but I think the whole package works pretty well together. The font on the Nats jerseys ruins them, but they're still my second-favorite b/c the cherry blossoms really pop. Finally, I like the Red Sox ones okay in extreme moderation, the marathon shoutout is neat and if it weren't for the history of the team, I think I'd look at that jersey and say 'yeah cool'

Clay Holmes

3:16

How can one tell when a reliever level up like this might occur, and why can't the Pirates see it?

Ben Clemens

3:16

Something about throwing stones when you live in a clay house, maybe? I'm not really sure, but I can tell you that when the Yankees acquired Holmes, I was far from the only person saying "this guy is going to be a useful pitcher for them this year"

3:17

His stuff looks the part, and he's stepped it up too since going to New York. Pitching development and working with guys to figure out how best to harness their talent seems like something the Yankees do incredibly well

Paul M

3:17

What is wrong with Tyler O'Neill right now? Striking out less, chasing less, whiffing less, and hitting way worse

Ben Clemens

3:18

Beats me. From watching him, he seems to be in his head about sliders at the moment, really taking bad swings against them, even when he connects

I'm not worried yet, but his approach does not look like the Tyler O'Neill approach that we know works

Steve O

3:19

Speaking of pitching development: what is the highest end of season fwar you could put on Nestor Cortes and think "that's not crazy"?

Ben Clemens

3:19

Hmmmm..... 4?

fWAR seems like it might undercount Cortes in general b/c I'd buy him as a contact suppressor thanks to all the funk in his delivery

Lunch Angle

3:20

What are we to make of Paul Blackburn?

Ben Clemens

3:20

I truly do not know. He might just be good? I missed him in an Ottoneu auction and though eh, I thought I might have overbid, kinda glad I missed -- and he's been lights out since hten

3:21

I wish I could say something more insightful than that. i just don't know! Seems like he decided to stop walking anyone or allowing any balls in the air. His average launch angle allowed is negative this year!

3:22

The guys who did that last year are basically good: Aaron Bummer, Clay Holmes, Framber Valdez, Richard Bleier, Mark Melancon (okay ehhhh), Logan Webb

If you can make opponents hit that many grounders, it's very hard to score against you, particularly if you don't walk anyone

3:23

Not sure he's going to keep doing it, and I dunno about this cutter he throws, but I'm gonna need to see some hitters start elevating the ball before I'm off the train

The Real Ben Clemens

3:24

Not really a question, just expressing a general frustration that everyone in the Royals organization seems to have a ludicrously long leash despite poor decision making and results. Matheny doing Matheny things, GMDM still in a position of power despite not having a winning season since 2015, etc. Might just be a result of the team's slow start but it's easy to get annoyed with seemingly the same process giving the same results and nothing changing.

Ben Clemens

3:25

Yeah, I can't say I disagree with you. I think that there are some silver linings to Moore -- the team has actually been pretty good at amateur scouting, and that matters -- but this isn't so much a good process bad execution issue as what is the plan here

#notapril

3:25

I hate to jinx a guy mid game… but Cease is making the Angels desist!

Ben Clemens

3:25

+1 for the pun

Guest

3:25

Baseball’s compensation system is screwed. How would you fix it? Can it be done without a negotiated revenue split.

Ben Clemens

3:26

I don't think it can be done without a negotiated revenue split, basically. I've thought about this one quite a lot, tried to write up new systems more than once in the offseason. I couldn't think of one that didn't have a revenue split at its core. Doesn't mean it doesn't exist, obviously, just that I'm not clever enough to have thought of one

The Reginald

3:27

Not your area of expertise, but Reginal Preciado from the Cubs is hitting .122/.157/.143 in A with a 56.9% K rate. I can't recall ever seeing a K rate that high, even in a small sample like his 51 PA. Have you heard anything about this kid and his wet noodle he brought to A ball?

Ben Clemens

3:27

I will merely say this: I saw Preciado (on TV) in spring training. He is the youngest-looking player I've ever seen, and he's SOOOOO skinny. He was born in 2003 (!!!)

3:28

A ball was a wildly aggressive assignment for him, I think he might just not be ready for it yet

3:29

Eh, I guess maybe wildly aggressive is a stretch, but he's like 2 years young for the league, and he's still growing phsyically it seems like

I'm not surprised that he's just being overmatched; I guess the alternative would be to let him go to the complex? I don't hate an aggressive assignment though

And actually, it looks like that might have happened? He hasn't played since April 24

Jackson R.

3:30

Are you sold on Belli's resurgence? From what I've seen, he's been feasting off of mistakes low in the zone, but still struggles to hit high heat.

Ben Clemens

3:30

I am extremely not

He doesn't look right to me. I agree with you -- he looks much more like a mistake hitter who's kinda selling out for low pitches than what he did when he was great

Wireless Joe Jackson

3:31

Remember that time like three years ago when Jose Ramirez was terrible for 4 months for really no apparent reason, and then went back to being a superstar?

Ben Clemens

3:31

It was bizarre. I'm thankful that I was just getting my feet wet as a writer here when that happened, or I would have had some cold takes to be exposed for sure

on the other hand, Ramirez is the platonic ideal of my favorite hitter type gone right -- the extremely-high-contact guy

Guest

3:32

Who has your favorite batting stance of all time? Jason Varitek and Kevin Youkilis were iconic for me growing up.

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