JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 5/20/25

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Ben Clemens

2:31

I think something that's missing is that some of that BABIP is earned

I've watched a LOT of Jordan Hicks in my life

my wife and I recently decided that the three pitchers we've seen teh most times are Jacob deGrom, Logan Webb, and Jordan Hicks

2:32

and I think that his sinker is just not a babip-suppressing pitch at medium velo

I do think he got a rough deal, but I think he's probably not gonna make it back to the rotation. They're also clearly worried about fatigue, so changing roles a ton of times? Skeptical

Petey Bienel

2:32

How long of a leash does Dylan Crews have this season? I suppose the Nats aren't in a position to replace him with somebody, but his Ks are pretty worrisome after trending better much of April. Was he forced to the majors just to chase RotY? His AAA numbers didn't scream call me up.

Ben Clemens

2:32

I'd give him the longest leash imaginable

what are they losing by trying him out in the bigs?

2:33

honestly the biggest problem he has is passivity, imo

so figure it out against big leaguers

Jay

2:33

Do you buy Ivan Herrera as a top ~25 hitter in the league over the next few years?

Ben Clemens

2:33

No, I do not

I do buy him as a top-50 position player, though. Not my median assumption but in range. The guy can really hit

Charlie

2:34

I dunno, I feel like the 1st base fiasco has the makings of at the lest an interesting summer, if not a good one.

Ben Clemens

2:34

This has to be about the Sox. And it's totally true!

I'm so excited

Guest

2:34

who are you most to least optimistic about the rest of 2025: Salvy, Santander, Adames, Altuve

Ben Clemens

2:34

Adames

and then Altuve/Santander/Salvy

that's for real life. In fantasy I'd probably put Altuve over Adames

Bosoxforlife

2:34

My prediction that the Dodgers would win more games than the two worst teams amongst the Rockies, White Sox and Marlins looks good. Add in the Pirates and it is simply astonishing to see MLB turn into the NBA with so many non-competitive teams

Ben Clemens

2:34

the Rockies are SO bad

like, the White Sox aren't good, don't get me wrong

2:35

but they're -57 run differential so far, not even bottom 5

the Rockies are -150 RD!!!!!

A's fan

2:35

Do we see Kurtz turn it around this year, or is he sent back to AAA?

Ben Clemens

2:35

omg did you see that tag he put on?

2:36

but uh, I'd probably send him back down, I hate to say. He cannot make contact and his plate discipline isn't gonna play until he can

The A's are theoretically competing for something, they can't wait for him to figure that out on the fly

Chase

2:36

What would a Zach Neto and/or Logan O'Hoppe extension look like? Halos trying to be the Braves of the West, they better start doing Braves things and not just trading with them

Ben Clemens

2:37

I haven't run them through the model specifically but I think with Neto, it'd be a classic '80% of arb plus two free agent years at $20m and a team option at $25 for a third'

if I were him, I'd be tempted not to take that

but that's about wehre I ballpark what a team might offer him

2:38

As for O'Hoppe, catchers just don't command the same kinds of deals. I'd model it on a baby Will Smith contract; Smith got a good deal of money, but with low AAV over a long period of time. That suits the Halos well

Guest

2:38

2 players have multiple 400 foot oppo homers this year. james wood and dylan crews. however both of crews' came off of chase dollander. as did one of wood's. i think this anecdote says a lot about crews and the rockies (and wood)

Mike Lommler

2:38

I was gonna ask a question about why pitchers are throwing PCA any strikes... but they already seem to hardly throw him any strikes. So my questions is this? Do you see PCA eventually taking more walks as the season goes on (he could hardly walk less) or do you think he is due for a significant come-down? His x-stats actually seem to be catching up with his production rather than vice-versa, so I dunno.

Ben Clemens

2:39

I think that he'll end up taking more walks but hitting for less power

because eventually he's going to stop being on such a wild on-contact run and get convinced to chase a bit less

i know it's hard but it's not impossible

and then pitchers will eventually start attacking him more as a result

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