JotCast | Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 5/20/25

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Matt Damon

2:39

MATT. DAMON.

Dan'l

2:39

What % chance do the young, overperforming Card players continue on as they have so far in '25? Thinking about Liberator, Scott, Herrerra (not hitting .400, to be clear)...

Ben Clemens

2:40

I'll say 60% for Libby, 70% for Herrera (playing at a first-division starter level, a top 10 catcher in baseball), and 35% for Scott. I think that Scott can still be good if his hitting regresses.... but I think it's gonna regress

Dan'l

2:41

If you're running the Cards, how far back in the Central at the deadline would you consider selling pieces (Fedde, Helsley)? Do you expect them to do the same as what you would do?

Ben Clemens

2:41

If I'm within, say, 3 games, I'm keeping them

I think the team will probably do something similar. Compete if it looks doable

it's the Cardinals. They can't help looking around and saying 'should we try to win the division?'

Jeremy

2:41

Is there a specific kind of hitter who's been hurt especially much by the ball being deader this year?

Ben Clemens

2:41

I looked into this the last time the ball went dead, and guys of the Anthony Rendon archetype (mid power, very good at bat control and thus elevating) had the biggest downside

2:42

now, the two most prominent examples of that both got plugged into good short porch situations (Bregman and Paredes)

but that kind of guy.... high contact, high aerial contact.... should be hurt hte most

Sanford

2:42

As a NY resident + sports enjoyer, I get how fandom works and I get how our media landscape operates. But man the Soto vitriol feels particularly desperate and depressing, even for our standards

Ben Clemens

2:42

I'm with you

2:43

maybe in the plyaoffs

this is a lot for May

methinks the Yankees fans doth protest too much

Bosoxforlife

2:44

With season almost 1/3rd of the way along, outside of the Orioles difficult to believe collapse what has surprised you the most?

Ben Clemens

2:44

I think it's the Rockies' abject awfulness

2:45

Wilmer Flores leading the majors in RBI is kind of wild

even though RBI aren't that useful of a predictive stat, like, dang

Soto

2:46

Person of the year award should go to the guy who got everyone in the baseball world to think Juan Soto was worth not 500 million, not 600 million, but 700 million......All for a diva who doesn't hustle and will be a DH in 5 years. Are there that few players who are good at hitting a baseball? Seems like we're due for a market correction.

Ben Clemens

2:46

Hey look!

some of it came here

come on, man

Surprising stats

2:47

Shohei has scored 50+ runs already!

rockies

2:47

they can't actually lose 135 games tho, right?
... right?

Ben Clemens

2:47

...... right

Scoreboard415

2:47

How do I signup for "Ben's random SF food recommendations?"

Ben Clemens

2:47

hmmmmm

just ask me some!

just went to cache in inner sunset, a new bistro-y casual place, and really liked it

Wrigley

2:47

Is PCA really this good - or will the weak plate discipline hold him back?

Ben Clemens

2:47

I mean, obviously he's not THIS good

2:48

but I think that he's the kind of hitter who can succeed with poor discipline because everything else he does is so dynamic

you can thin kof him like a luxury harrison bader, maybe. You don't have to solve hitting to run a good enough wRC+ accrued largely in hot streaks, and then get everything else with your defense

B Esiason

2:49

Juan Soto and Mrs. Met were in the closet making babies and I saw one of the babies and the baby looked at me

Ben Clemens

2:49

now THAT

is great Juan Soto heckling

Steve O

2:49

Kind of a wild question to ask but is Kyle Tucker losing himself money by not having a Soto like walk year? He’s on pace for 5ish WAR which for me is 200-300M range when you factor in age.

Ben Clemens

2:49

We've got him on pace for 5.5 WAR which, yeah, would definitely represent a lower FA contract than I pegged him for before the year

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